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23 Apr 2025
Q1'25 First Take: ‘pretty good’ more than acceptable today

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Q1'25 First Take: ‘pretty good’ more than acceptable today
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
23 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
17 -
Backlog beats lowered expectations, Cloud Revenue misses, Earnings / FCF power through
Current Cloud Backlog (CCB) delivered 29% growth ccy, the key headline in the print in our view given its sensitivity to near term demand fluctuations. Over the past month investor expectations had moved lower here given the tariff instilled uncertainty rippling through the global economy, and the +29% should now be taken positively, helping the US ADR shares jump +9% after hours. Cloud Revenue decelerated sequentially and came in below expectations, now requiring an acceleration through the year which adds risk, though Co. commentary was reassuring on revenue phasing to drive a re-acceleration as soon as Q2. Earnings and underlying FCF all beat by 9-12% demonstrating both powerful operating leverage and cost adaptability in the current environment. Overall a robust print, paired against the recent ~20% share price pullback should be well received.
Conf call takeaways: core resilience and cost flexibility
Co. acknowledges economic backdrop but still sees core S/4 product upgrade well insulated from external risks and Business Data Cloud kicker still to come. Some signs of economic uncertainty starting to show around the edges, contributing to slight Cloud Revenue miss but deemed manageable in current environment. We continue to see plenty of room in SAP''s opex envelope to deliver EPS upside this year, as evidenced in Q1, with a strong Q1 FCF helping alleviate investor concerns flagged earlier this year, though we expect it to remain a debate.
SAP remains well positioned to drive EPS upgrades. Next up: Sapphire / CMD. Reit. O/P.
SAP has outperformed ytd (6)% vs. IGV Software (15)% but since Feb highs has performed in line, both c.(20)%. At EUR220 SAP trades on 29x P/E and 4.0% FCF yield (BNPP 2026) for 20% EPS CAGR in one of Global Software''s most compelling multi-year equity stories with more macro resilience than most. We continue to see the near-term share price...