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23 Jul 2025
Q2'25 First Take: solid print but new caution in commentary

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Q2'25 First Take: solid print but new caution in commentary
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
23 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
16 -
Q2: in line CCB while Cloud Revenue, EBIT, EPS and FCF all beat. FY guide unch.
CCB +28% ccy, in line with expectations and on track for Co. FY indication of a slight deceleration. Cloud Revenue accelerated 2pp sequentially to 27.6%, a relief after Q1 and comfortably back within the FY guide range (26-28%) driven by a 1pp Cloud ERP acceleration despite further softness in transaction / volume apps. On the cost side SAP continues to deliver ahead of expectations: adj. EBIT landing +6% vs. Cons and growing 35% in Q2 / 45% H1 vs. FY guide 26-30% (all ccy). Q2 EBIT was in line with our estimate as net hiring was kept broadly unch. as we flagged as possible in our Q2 preview. FCF also beat by 40% (30% ex-restructuring phasing). FY guidance unch.
However incremental caution in SAP commentary weighs on top line resilience halo
Despite the overall solid results, Cloud Revenue relief, earnings and FCF beats the US ADR traded down 2-3% after hours. We sensed an added layer of conservatism in SAP''s commentary, with the economic and geopolitical environment now having some tangible impact seen in delayed customer decision making in Q2 particularly in US Public Sector (new) adding to some existing softness in Manufacturing markets. While the pipeline commentary was positive - coverage remains as strong as last year - it was the comments on reduced deal conversion visibility hinting SAP''s ''cloak of invincibility'' against the economic backdrop may be starting to wear thinner which was notable.
Prudence or caution? Valuation could see market tilt to the latter for now, despite EPS upside.
As we flagged in our Q2 preview , near-term SAP shares may be temporarily confined to Cons EPS revisions on cost efficiency in absence of Growth ''beat-and-raises'' until AI and Data Cloud upside moves into view: we anticipate upward Cons EBIT revisions closer to our estimates sitting 5-7% higher in FY25/26 after another solid EBIT beat and conservative looking FY guide. However...