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19 Oct 2023
Q3''23 postview: a strong Q3. Onwards to 2024.

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Q3''23 postview: a strong Q3. Onwards to 2024.
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
19 Oct 2023 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
22 -
Q3 top line hurdles achieved, and outperformance delivered on remaining KPIs. A strong Q3.
SAP delivered in line / slightly ahead on two key top line metrics (Cloud revenue and Cloud Backlog growth) where we sensed most investor caution ahead of results given the continued challenging macro and geopolitical backdrop. Other KPIs were ahead of expectations, helping de-risk the FY23 guidance and lifting the shares by ~5%. Full Q3 details: Q3''23 First Take
FY23 EBIT and FCF guidance looks too conservative, in our view. We see upside to guidance.
Following the strong adj. EBIT (+19% ytd) and FCF (+29% ytd) performance we believe the FY guidance on both metrics now looks conservative even when adjusting for one-off factors in the comparators; Q4 growth on each would need to turn negative to reach Co. guidance. Our FY23 adj. EBIT / EPS estimates are broadly unchanged and imply 14.6% adj. EBIT growth ccy vs. guidance 8-12%, while we believe SAP can deliver ~EUR5.1bn FCF underlying vs. guide EUR4.9bn (before our assumption of ~EUR0.4bn of factoring unwind in our EUR4.7bn estimate, which we lift by ~EUR200m). SAP has navigated 2023 well so far, and we sense growing investor confidence on its strategic execution and improved financial communication this year.
Expect investor focus to shift to 2024, and the stepping stone to 2025 mid-term targets
We expect the debate will soon shift to 2024, in particular the Cloud Revenue / adj. EBIT / FCF outlook in the context of the trajectory towards 2025 targets. We believe SAP can exit FY23 with mid-20s % CCB growth paving the way for Cloud Revenue growth to accelerate, while a combination of fiscal discipline, expanding Cloud gross margins and Maintenance price increases helping drive low-teens adj. EBIT growth in 2024. Continued execution can help the market gain confidence and see both upgrades to estimates and a re-rating of the shares, which currently values SAP on just 17x P/E (vs. 15-25x 10-year range) or...