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22 Oct 2024
Q3’24 postview: powering through this phase of the equity story

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Q3’24 postview: powering through this phase of the equity story
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
22 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
20 -
SAP clears growth hurdle(s) and upgrades EBIT and FCF guidance triggering upgrades
Current Cloud Backlog and Cloud Revenue both delivered on the expected acceleration and Cloud ERP surprised further, delivering an impressive 36% growth (+3pp sequentially), now a ~EUR15bn annualised growth powerhouse. Furthermore SAP upgraded guidance again, by 2% on 2024 adj. EBIT and by as much as 14% on FCF. The shares reacted positively (+5% intraday) but faded to close +2%: we note increasingly frequent discussions on the 2026-2030 prospects as investors gradually see the shares pricing the 2024-26 upside and look for the next major catalysts beyond.
Power of efficiency visible already, sets up well for 2025
Top line momentum remains resilient. However it was the cost efficiency that surprised us more with Q3 adj. EBIT / EPS beating our above-Consensus estimates by 3-6%. Despite hiring 2,200 people (net) SAP''s underlying opex declined sequentially in absolute EUR, highlighting the scope of the cost savings beyond headcount already becoming visible. That bodes well for 2025 when the bulk of the savings from the headcount departures will kick in and we continue to see upside to Co. EUR10.2bn adj. EBIT and EUR8bn FCF 2025 ambitions.
Upgrades to Cons 2025/26 to drive near term, with new mid-term plan the next big catalyst
We update estimates with 1-2% revisions across the board. We anticipate upgrades to Consensus estimates moving closer to ours (which have been consistently above market expectations in the past 2+ years). As expectations for 2025/26 converge and valuation better reflects this, we increasingly see the next major catalyst to arrive at 2025 CMD (May) where a new mid-term ambition may be provided to drive the next phase of the equity story. Until then the shares can continue to perform on incremental 3-8% upgrades to Consensus 2025/26 EBIT / EPS / FCF baked into our estimates with the shares trading on an attractive 4.2% FCF yield or 29x P/E inc SBC (2026)....