SAP to report Q3''24 results Monday 21 October (post-US market) We sense heightened investor nerves as SAP approaches Q3 results trading at all-time highs but dogged by a string of negative news. We think Q3 will therefore be important to demonstrate that fundamentals remain intact, namely: core business demand resilience to macro softness (CCB growth) plus ability to deliver improved profitability (adj. EBIT growth/margins) and cash generation. We think a solid print can calm investor nerves and pave a path for upgrades to 2024/25 earnings and FCF expectations (BNPPE 4-5% above Cons EBIT/EPS/FCF). Puts and takes on key metrics: CCB, Cloud Revenue growth and adj. EBIT In this preview we explore BNPPE/Consensus/Buyside expectations: CCB growth and the MandA contribution debate (we estimate Q3 Buyside expectations at +29% ccy), Cloud Revenue growth (+25.7% Consensus, but we are more cautious at +24.4% on weaker volume/transaction revenue streams subject to macro environment and not seen in CCB) and adj. EBIT growth where we see scope for upside and even a possible FY guidance raise within our (broadly unchanged) estimates. We also highlight positive channel check data for SAP and re-cap recent mixed newsflow and highlight our views on each: leadership departures, DoJ investigation and employee morale. Elevated expectations maybe, but continued execution can maintain positive momentum The bar is set increasingly high as SAP''s shares continue their rally to all-time highs (+49% ytd). We continue to believe SAP''s product upgrade cycle will provide resilience to macro headwinds and that further efficiency gains can drive upside to near-term and mid-term EPS and FCF expectations. We remain 4-5% ahead of Consensus adj. EPS and FCF, delivery of which could drive the shares until a new mid-term plan is outlined (we anticipate at the May-2025 CMD) as the next major catalyst in the SAP equity story. We update estimates including for MandA but offset by additional...