SAP is on investors'' watchlist, with reluctance to front-run the CFO''s 2025 guidance update We upgraded SAP to Outperform in March (Dear Mr Asam,) and have since spoken to ~100 global investors on the thesis. Our three headline conclusions on investor sentiment are, 1) SAP''s profile ticks many investor checklist boxes for 2023, but confidence to own the stock near term remains low, and most investors are ''Neutral'', 2) FCF generation is the most important factor to improve sentiment, and 3) there is more concern on the 2025 Ambition update than we anticipated. What can SAP do to convince investors to go Overweight? We structured our deep-dive upgrade report as a ''wish list'' from the market to new CFO Dominik Asam, who joined SAP on 7 March, Outlining 5 priorities to improve investor sentiment. We see catalysts as soon as the Q1''23 results (21 April, with likely y/y margin improvements) and SAP''s Investor Day (16 May). We see upside to Consensus 2025 estimates even if SAP just reiterates targets like-for-like (i.e. adjusting for Qualtrics sale, Russia/Ukraine wind-down, and FX). Based on our investor conversations, even a simple reiteration would be well received, in our view, as 1) the market would be relieved that the new CFO has reviewed the mid-term plan and is comfortable with the current targets, and 2) there would likely still be the potential for operational outperformance, limiting the potential for any future disappointments. Reiterate Outperform as SAP has an attractive profile Our recent investor discussions make us incrementally more positive on SAP considering the extreme investor concern and lack of confidence in the stock. We believe the lack of a ''re-set'' from the new CFO, potential for ongoing top and bottom line upgrades, and improved communication, may lead to more investors moving overweight. With continued macro uncertainty, SAP''s high portion of recurring revs (84% in ''24), minimal license rev dependency (just 3% in ''24),...