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  • 23 Apr 2025

Actinver Research - Gruma 1Q25: Weaker-than-expected sales do not prevent strong margins (Quick View)


Gruma SAB de CV Class B (GRUMAB:MEX) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Actinver
    • Antonio Hernandez | Enrique Covarrubias

    • 4 pages


 

Revenues of US$1.55 billion were 6% lower YoY, and below our estimates and consensus. Sales underperformed our estimates across all regions, with Gruma USA and Mexico posting contracting sales, on average -2.4% and the latter impacted by FX headwinds. Central America, on the other hand, posted solid healthy amid high demand, while Europe continues to benefit from its distribution strategy, and Australia offsets China’s performance. Volumes contracted 1% YoY, impacted by foodservice in the U.S. and a slowdown in retail U.S. and Mexico, while pricing/mix in the U.S. was also impacted. Profitability improved starting at the gross margin level. For another quarter, COGS decreased 10% YoY amid efficiencies in the U.S. and MX, leading to gross margin expansion of 250bps YoY, also ahead vs our estimates and QoQ. While SG&A increased as a % of sales, it didn’t prevent the company from posting solid EBIT and EBITDA margin expansions of on average 160bps YoY, double the expected expansion, the latter closing at 17.8%, the second highest within the last years. Results in Mexico underperformed, while profitability in the U.S. contributed to consolidated expansion. While sales in the U.S. were weaker-than-expected, contracting 2.6% YoY, margins performed solidly amid cost efficiencies; EBITDA margin reached a solid 22%, above our flattish estimates. In Mexico, sales and volumes contracted 2% YoY, while margins improved amid cost efficiencies and despite higher SG&A expenses; EBITDA margin expanded 20bps YoY to reach 10.1%, in line with our estimates. In Europe, Gruma posted a sales growth of 7% YoY, in line with our estimates, despite volume contraction driven by the corn milling business. COGS grew as a % of sales, yet lower SG&A expenses led to a 100bps higher EBITDA margin of 9.9%. In Asia & Oceania, volumes and sales grew 2% YoY, while higher COGS led to lower margins; EBITDA margin closed at 12.9%, 200bps lower YoY. Finally, Central America posted sales growth of 1% YoY, while EBITDA margin reached 16.8%, a 70bps YoY expansion. We remain with an Underperform rating and P$380 PT.

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Actinver Research - Gruma 1Q25: Weaker-than-expected sales do not prevent strong margins (Quick View)


Gruma SAB de CV Class B (GRUMAB:MEX) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 23 Apr 2025
  • Author: Antonio Hernandez | Enrique Covarrubias
  • Pages: 4
  • Actinver


Revenues of US$1.55 billion were 6% lower YoY, and below our estimates and consensus. Sales underperformed our estimates across all regions, with Gruma USA and Mexico posting contracting sales, on average -2.4% and the latter impacted by FX headwinds. Central America, on the other hand, posted solid healthy amid high demand, while Europe continues to benefit from its distribution strategy, and Australia offsets China’s performance. Volumes contracted 1% YoY, impacted by foodservice in the U.S. and a slowdown in retail U.S. and Mexico, while pricing/mix in the U.S. was also impacted. Profitability improved starting at the gross margin level. For another quarter, COGS decreased 10% YoY amid efficiencies in the U.S. and MX, leading to gross margin expansion of 250bps YoY, also ahead vs our estimates and QoQ. While SG&A increased as a % of sales, it didn’t prevent the company from posting solid EBIT and EBITDA margin expansions of on average 160bps YoY, double the expected expansion, the latter closing at 17.8%, the second highest within the last years. Results in Mexico underperformed, while profitability in the U.S. contributed to consolidated expansion. While sales in the U.S. were weaker-than-expected, contracting 2.6% YoY, margins performed solidly amid cost efficiencies; EBITDA margin reached a solid 22%, above our flattish estimates. In Mexico, sales and volumes contracted 2% YoY, while margins improved amid cost efficiencies and despite higher SG&A expenses; EBITDA margin expanded 20bps YoY to reach 10.1%, in line with our estimates. In Europe, Gruma posted a sales growth of 7% YoY, in line with our estimates, despite volume contraction driven by the corn milling business. COGS grew as a % of sales, yet lower SG&A expenses led to a 100bps higher EBITDA margin of 9.9%. In Asia & Oceania, volumes and sales grew 2% YoY, while higher COGS led to lower margins; EBITDA margin closed at 12.9%, 200bps lower YoY. Finally, Central America posted sales growth of 1% YoY, while EBITDA margin reached 16.8%, a 70bps YoY expansion. We remain with an Underperform rating and P$380 PT.

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