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The Q1 22 results were very solid.
Both volumes and prices were well oriented.
The outlook is supportive.
Current high energy prices can only support this view.
We will upgrade our numbers and target price after this release.
Companies: Tenaris (TEN:BIT)Tenaris S.A. (TEN:MIL)
The FY21 numbers came in higher than expectations.
The recovery in drilling activity and OCTG prices in North America explain this performance.
The EBITDA margin is still on the rise despite higher input costs.
The net result is also boosted by the contributions from Ternium and Usiminas (steel makers, not consolidated).
Overall, a solid set of numbers and a reasonably positive outlook.
We will revise our numbers and valuation upwards after our target price has been reached.
Rather strong revenue and profit numbers for Q3 21, despite higher energy and freight costs.
The cash consumption was high, mainly due to WC build-up.
The DoC opened an investigation into imports from Argentina, Mexico and Russia, which could possibly weigh on Tenaris as it partly exports from South America to the US (on top of its US production).
We will fine-tune our numbers and valuation. Our recommendation probably needs to turn positive again after our target price has been reached.
H1 21 sales supported by North and South America
The momentum is slowed by the Middle East and Africa, as expected
The group’s margins (EBITDA) are improving and should reach 20% for the full year
The cash position remains high despite a higher working capital
We will fine-tune our forecasts on this decent set of results
The Q1 21 results came in broadly in line with expectations
The outlook calls for a further recovery in sales and margins
Higher prices should compensate for higher input costs
We will fine-tune our forecasts on the back of this release
The FY20 results came in slightly above consensus
Cost-cutting has done the job, waiting for the top line to gradually recover in FY21
The outlook is encouraging at the margin level and should positively impact margins going forward
We will upgrade our forecasts and valuation after this release
Revenues in Q3 were weak as announced
They still show a sequential improvement
Cost-cutting is paying off, mitigating the fall in volumes and prices
The trough could be behind with a reasonably optimistic outlook
Companies: Tenaris S.A.
Q2 was weak as expected due to oil prices and the pandemic
The outlook for Q3 is very cautious
In particular, America remains a concern given the group’s geographic exposure
We will revise downwards our forecasts for the current year at least
FY19 results were a bit lower than expected
Q1 20 should be in the same vein as Q4 19, i.e. below FY20’s expected margin
The integration of Ipsco (US) will provide some room for extra profits thanks to synergies
FY20 should show a moderate growth in earnings
We will revise our forecasts most likely with no big change in our target price
The Q3 19 results were below our estimates due to lower US prices and weaker demand.
Argentina was also subdued due to political uncertainty.
Q4 is set to be in the same vein as Q3.
The margin level remains decent, but will not recover before next year.
Q2 19: fine, impressive cash generation but no over excitement.
Q2 19 in line with guidance
FY19 will be a transitional year, with sales marginally up and very decent margins
Investors are still waiting for a rebound in end-demand
In this “low growth” context, cash generation is impressive, and we expect corporate action
- Q1 19 revenues flat yoy and 11% down sequentially
- H1 19 seen stable, with margins at the current high level
- The cash position has again improved, providing fire-power for M&A, we believe
- No major change to our numbers
Tenaris announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire from PAO TMK, a Russian company and manufacturer of steel pipes, 100% of the shares of its wholly-owned US subsidiary IPSCO Tubulars, Inc., for US$1,209m, on a cash-free, debt-free basis, which includes US$270m of working capital.
Tenaris has just announced that it will form a joint venture with PAO Severstal to build a welded pipe plant to produce OCTG products in the Surgut area, West Siberia, Russia, a US$240m project to be built over two years and in which Tenaris will have a 50% interest.
Tenaris released Q3 18 numbers. Sales reached US$1,899m (+46% yoy, +6% sequentially), EBITDA US$394m (+75% yoy, +8% qoq), operating income US$258m (+227% and +16%) and net result US$247m (vs US$95m and US$166m). Net cash at the end of Q3 18 reached US$408m vs US$423m in H1, US$557m in Q1 and US$680m at year-end 17. In Q4, the group expects to “finish the year strongly with a high level of shipments to the Zohr project and a seasonal increase in sales in Canada, with margins in line with the curr
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Companies: Sylvania Platinum Ltd.
Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
Arc has recently signed an agreement with Anglo American (LSE:AAL, Market Cap $45bn) on a JV for its highly prospective Zambian licences (subject to final due diligence). The deal sees (3) main staged payments of up to $74m in the ground and $14.5m to Arc (by end of stage 1) and significantly leaving Arc with a 30% stake in the project. On a detailed reflection over the deal we want to reiterate how positive we see this is for Arc: i) Arc could never have raised this sort of capital to bring exp
Companies: ARC Minerals Limited
Jubilee today provides an operational update on the ongoing commissioning at the new Inyoni chrome and PGM plants with Jubilee building up to steady state production for nameplate capacity of 1.2Mt chrome concentrate and 44koz PGM production per year. Remember processing chrome creates the upgraded PGM tailings for Jubilee to recover the PGMs (Jubilee being paid a small margin to preconcentrate its own feed) and with the expanded Inyoni there is no need to share the PGM revenues via a JV struct
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Jubilee today confirms the appointment of a new Chairman to take over from Colin Bird (who set up the company) and who will we believe have the experience to take them to the next stage. The stage has been set by the outgoing Chairman with Manuel Lino Silva de Sousa Oliveira (Ollie) appointed as independent non-executive director and Chairman to help realise the next moves. He brings with him a wealth of experience with senior executive positions within the Anglo-American Group and at De Beers
Last week Tamesis visited a number of Tharisa PLC's assets including the Tharisa Mine and Arxo Metals Beneficiation Site (AMBS) in South Africa and the Karo Platinum Project in Zimbabwe. Overall it was an extremely well received trip with evidence of efficiency improvements at the Tharisa mine, unexpected cash generation from the Vulcan Plant, further cash from the Salene Chrome Plant and, it also impressed on us that the Zimbabwe risk to the build out of Karo is lower than the market perhaps th
Companies: Tharisa Plc
Pantheon Resources announced that it has contracted a rig (the Nabors 105AC) to the Alkaid #2 well, which the company indicated is scheduled to spud in July 2022. The company indicated that if the well is successful, Pantheon Resources will commence a long-term production test and truck and sell the produced oil to a nearby North Slope facility.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
RCE-2 well flow test result
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
Chariot has conditionally raised gross proceeds of US$25.5m (before costs), providing the Company with sufficient funds to advance the Anchois Gas Development towards a Final Investment Decision (FID) and to progress its renewable power pipeline. The placing was significantly oversubscribed, highlighting the market's confidence in Chariot's business model and its management team. We maintain our price target at 51p, with the recent rise in the European gas price forward curve offsetting the dilu
Companies: Chariot Limited
A pre-feasibility study for the c10 GW green hydrogen project named “Project Nour” has confirmed that Mauritania is exceptionally well-placed for green hydrogen due its world class solar and wind resources, with the project having the potential to produce some of the cheapest green hydrogen in the world. With up to 10GW of electrolysis installed, Project Nour has the potential to become one of the largest green hydrogen projects globally by 2030. Geographically proximal to the European markets,
Cornish Metals Inc (“Cornish”) has announced the closing of a £25m strategic investment by Vision Blue Resources (“VBR”) and £15.5m from a private placing to existing and new UK institutional investors as well as a subscription by existing Canadian investors and eligible private investors. The proceeds will be used to advance South Crofty to Feasibility whilst dewatering the mine over a 30-month period and ultimately, subject to funding, commence mining in two years’ time.
Companies: Cornish Metals Inc.
Diversified has announced the acquisition of a portfolio of East Texas upstream assets and related facilities from a private seller for US$50m – an attractive 1.4x multiple based on the NTM adjusted EBITDA of US$35m and before any potential synergies. At US$50m, the net purchase price approximates a >PV40 valuation at the effective date and represents an attractive discount of c51% to the estimated PV10 using the NYMEX strip as of the 19 April 2022. The assets include PDP reserves of 18mmboe (11
Companies: Diversified Energy Company PLC
ARC has announced it has signed a JV agreement with Anglo American (LSE:AAL, Market Cap $45bn) over its Zambian licences. This has long been in the offing and we view the terms as advantageous to Arc and a validation of the prospectivity that it (and we) see in its licences. The headline JV payments are staged but could ultimately lead to Anglo owning 70% of the licences, by investing $74m in exploration and paying Arc $14.5m. The licences will be held under a JV which will have an initial ow
*A corporate client of Hybridan LLP
Dish of the day
EnSilica (ENSI.L), has join AIM. EnSilica provides an end-to-end service for the design and supply of mixed signal ASICs, outsourcing certain elements such as the wafer fabrication of the manufacturing and packaging to third parties - otherwise known as a Fabless Semiconductor Model. ASICs are Integrated Circuits or semiconductor chips developed for a particular use or product rather than for general purpose usage. ASICs help
Companies: YGEN AFRN ALBA ART BLV CCS EPWN FIPP NWT KETL