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AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Flow rate at the top end of expectations at important appraisal well - The Anshof-3 well flowed ~75 bbl/d of light oil (and no water) on test from the Eocene reservoir. This has positive implications for production, reserves and the upside case. The flow rate was at the upper end of expectations (40-80 bbl/d). The well has not been acidized yet which could boost production rate b
Companies: TAL SNM XOM XOM TTE SEPL SHEL REP REP PAT OMV OMV HUR FAR ENI ENI EME EDR DELT DEC CEG AKRBP AKERBP ADX CE1 PEN PEN TETY TETY EGY VLE
The results were in line with the consensus with an EBITDA CCS up by 4% qoq at €2.45bn. This was led by the Upstream division, with an EBITDA up by 12% qoq at €1.69bn, thanks to a 30% increase in the oil price and 14% in the gas price. The net debt was higher (€5.9bn, +€150m) on a working capital increase of €1.9bn, impacted by the rise in oil/gas prices.
Companies: Repsol (REP:BME)Repsol SA (REP:MCE)
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Looking at E&P Free Cash Flow - While companies still carry hedges contracted at lower prices, we estimate our producer universe will generate ~25% FCF yield (defined as FCF/EV) in 2022 at ~US$100/bbl. At just US$70/bbl, the overall FCF yield is estimated at 15% for 2023 and >20% for 2024. Assuming US$110/bbl, this increases further to ~40% for each of 2023 and 2024. At YE24, balance sheet net cash, after paying shareholder distributio
Companies: SOU OMV OMV VOG TGL SNM CASP BLOK SHEL REP REP IGAS ENI ENI ECHO I3E CNE ALV ALV SDX GPRK GPRK LBE ADX AXL CE1 PEN PEN TAL PHAR TETY TETY EGY WEN
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C: Target price increased from £0.55to £0.70 per share: Very material reserves increase – YE21 1P, 2P and 3P reserves were ~37 mmbbl, 78 mmbbl and147 mmbbl respectively. This represents increases of 68%, 53% and 39% respectively, compared to YE20. The uplift reflects (1) an increase of the original oil in place (1P: +5%, 2P: +7%, 3P: +7%) and (2) an increase in the recovery factors of 18% (from 11%), 22% (from
Companies: WEN PPC HUR SHEL CASP TAL REP REP RHC RHC TLW
The results are slightly above consensus with an adjusted EBITDA of €2.35bn (+34% qoq), thanks to the Upstream division (EBITDA of €1.5bn, +39% qoq) on higher oil & gas prices (realised gas prices were up 40% qoq), as well as the Industrial division (EBITDA of €577m, +72% qoq) on higher refining margins (+$1.2/bbl at $4.4/bbl) more than offsetting the energy costs. The company guides for an additional share buy-back programme (50mln shares) if macro conditions remain favourable (oil above $70/bb
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: Positive logging results at Anshof-3 – Logging results from the Anshof-3 well confirmed 2.5-4 m of productive net pay at the primary Eocene oil target and 14 m of net gas pay at the Miocene sands. The secondary Cenomanian oil zone is not likely to be productive at this location due to low permeability (this is not a surprise). The Eocene net reservoir thickness at Anshof-3 locati
Companies: GPRK GPRK TTE TGL SQZ SOU REP REP MAHAA KOS LUPE LEK HUR GTE GENL ENOG ECHO ADX CE1 DNO DNO TAL PHAR TETY TETY VLE
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: Farm-out of a small portion of drilling prospect in Upper Austria showcases the acreage’s quality – ADX is farming out 20% of the Anshof prospect in Upper Austria to ASX listed Xstate Resources. In return Xstate will fund 40% of the cost of the Anshof exploration well with a cap of EUR0.72 mm net to Xstate (corresponding to a gross well cost of EUR1.8 mm). Xstate could also fund
Companies: ADX AXL ENI ENI GTE IOG JSE LBE MAHAA PEN PEN TAL PHAR PPC REP REP
Adjusted net income was slightly above consensus, with gains in Upstream on higher oil and gas prices as well as in the Commercial division, mainly due to higher sales volumes in Mobility. This supports a dividend increase of 5% (to €0.63 per share) and a buy-back programme of 35m shares (c. €400m). All in all, positive results with a distribution that moves ahead of the initial plan (which was guiding for a stable dividend for 2021 and 2022).
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: 3Q21 results – 3Q21 production in Austria was 275 boe/d, below our forecasts of ~315 boe/d due to well downtime. A well workover programme has started in October to add 100-150 boe/d. The Anshof-1 exploration well is expected to be spudded in December. An updated reserves report is expected in the coming weeks. The green Energy project is on track and engineering, planning and p
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AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target of A$0.040 per share: Agreement with major wind power provider is game changing for ADX’s green H2 business – ADX has signed a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with Windkraft Simonsfeld (WKS) for the supply of green electricity and the development of a green H2 production and underground storage project in Austria. Definitive agreements are expected to be signed by December. WKS is a major Austria-based Euro
Companies: BLOK SNM ADX ALV ALV CNE CNE DEC ECHO XOM XOM GENL GPRK GPRK LUPE REP REP SHEL JKX OMV OMV
All in all, a decent release, with the Industrial division showing stronger results. In Petrochemicals, the company benefits from exceptional margins. The International Petrochemical Margin indicator is up 45% qoq (€1,537/t) and up 74% yoy. In Refining, the margin was also up by $1.3/bbl (to $1.5/bbl), but remains below the group target for FY ($2/bbl). The company believes margins have reached an inflection, with capacity being rationalised. Over the long term, the group expects the European re
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C: Target of A$0.040 per share: High impact newsflow in 2H21 - 2H21 will be very important for the company with significant upcoming newsflow. In our view, the most meaningful eventis the drilling of the Anshoff well in Austria. We were previously anticipating that the company would need a farm-in partner to fund the well. However, in the context of the current high oil price, >A$4 mm in cash at the end of June and
Companies: XOM XOM SOU NOG SEPL LUPE SHEL TETY TETY ADX CE1 DNO DNO ENI ENI EQNR EQNR GENL IHC OMV OMV PEN PEN PHAR REP REP SNM TTE
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL CN) C; Restarting in Colombia. New team. New focus – Arrow Exploration is a C$7 mm market cap E&P focused on Colombia with 7 mmboe of 2P reserves and ~535 boe/d production. While many of the early stage companies of a decade ago such as GeoPark, Parex,, Canacol or Frontera have become larger independents, the environment for start-ups in Colombia remains fertile and Arrow is one of the few micro cap companies th
Companies: ALV AXL CNE CEG DEC ENI ENI EQNR EQNR GPRK GPRK I3E IHC JSE KOS OMV OMV PXT PESA BRDT3 REP REP SHEL UKOG
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Challenger Energy (CEG LN)C; Target of 12p per share: Drilling update in Trinidad - The Saffron well penetrated various Middle Cruse zones including hydrocarbons zones as prognosed pre-drill, and with drilling rates and impact on surrounding clays and mobile shales improved significantly from Saffron-1 owing to the use of synthetic-based muds and a solid foundation for drilling design in any future field development. Initial petrophysi
Companies: VOG LUPE TLW WEN SOU AKRBP AKERBP REP REP I3E HUR EQNR EQNR ENI ENI
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Challenger Energy (IHC CN)C: Drilling update in Trinidad - Drilling of the top section of Saffron-2, though the Upper Cruse and upper parts of the Middle Cruse, has now been completed, with formations encountered in line with pre-drill expectations. The casing is being cemented deeper than the equivalent casing point for Saffron-1, providing a better foundation for drilling the deeper, primary targets. The next stage of the Saffron-2 well will evaluate the deeper Middle Crus
Companies: VOG SOU SAVE REP REP I3E FEC CNE CASP ALV CEG TAL PHAR
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Repsol SA. We currently have 111 research reports from 5 professional analysts.
Companies: Sylvania Platinum Ltd.
Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
Jubilee today provides an operational update on the ongoing commissioning at the new Inyoni chrome and PGM plants with Jubilee building up to steady state production for nameplate capacity of 1.2Mt chrome concentrate and 44koz PGM production per year. Remember processing chrome creates the upgraded PGM tailings for Jubilee to recover the PGMs (Jubilee being paid a small margin to preconcentrate its own feed) and with the expanded Inyoni there is no need to share the PGM revenues via a JV struct
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Last week Tamesis visited a number of Tharisa PLC's assets including the Tharisa Mine and Arxo Metals Beneficiation Site (AMBS) in South Africa and the Karo Platinum Project in Zimbabwe. Overall it was an extremely well received trip with evidence of efficiency improvements at the Tharisa mine, unexpected cash generation from the Vulcan Plant, further cash from the Salene Chrome Plant and, it also impressed on us that the Zimbabwe risk to the build out of Karo is lower than the market perhaps th
Companies: Tharisa Plc
Pantheon Resources announced that it has contracted a rig (the Nabors 105AC) to the Alkaid #2 well, which the company indicated is scheduled to spud in July 2022. The company indicated that if the well is successful, Pantheon Resources will commence a long-term production test and truck and sell the produced oil to a nearby North Slope facility.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
RCE-2 well flow test result
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
Chariot has conditionally raised gross proceeds of US$25.5m (before costs), providing the Company with sufficient funds to advance the Anchois Gas Development towards a Final Investment Decision (FID) and to progress its renewable power pipeline. The placing was significantly oversubscribed, highlighting the market's confidence in Chariot's business model and its management team. We maintain our price target at 51p, with the recent rise in the European gas price forward curve offsetting the dilu
Companies: Chariot Limited
ARC has announced it has signed a JV agreement with Anglo American (LSE:AAL, Market Cap $45bn) over its Zambian licences. This has long been in the offing and we view the terms as advantageous to Arc and a validation of the prospectivity that it (and we) see in its licences. The headline JV payments are staged but could ultimately lead to Anglo owning 70% of the licences, by investing $74m in exploration and paying Arc $14.5m. The licences will be held under a JV which will have an initial ow
Companies: ARC Minerals Limited
Dish of the day Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Psych Capital PLC, intends to list on the AQSE Growth Market. Psych operates the Psych Platform (a business-to-business networking platform), that is developing the Blossom Database pursuant to a third party licensing arrangement. The Company also has an investment of 426,000 common shares in Awakn, a Canadian NEO Exchange listed psychedelics research and clinical group, with operations in th
Companies: YCA 7DIG BOOM DMTR EYE KIBO NFC RST SPSY
Dish of the day Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? EnSilica, intends to join AIM. EnSilica is a designer and supplier of mixed signal Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). ASICs are integrated circuits or semiconductor chips developed for a particular use or product rather than for general purpose usage. ASICs help differentiate products through optimised hardware thereby making products smaller, faster, lower power and more
Companies: XTR XLM VRS SUP ROCK SLE SEMP OHG HDD FIH
Companies: Thungela Resources Limited
Caledonia Mining Corporation delivers high yield exposure to the gold sector with increasing production from the 64% owned Blanket Gold Mine in Zimbabwe. With an improving political situation, Caledonia offers the in-country experience to capitalise on production backed exploration in a significant under-explored African greenstone belt. We value Caledonia on a base case in the region of $233m or £14.85/share, based on a long-term $1,750/oz gold price and assuming a 12% discount rate. With a foc
Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation PLC
Full year 2021 results
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
Dish of the day Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Lekoil, the oil and gas exploration and production Company with a focus on Nigeria and West Africa intends to join the AQSE Growth Market. The Company was previously listed on AIM (LEK.L), however, Ordinary Shares have been suspended from trading on AIM since October 2021. Due 18th May 2022. EnSilica, intends to join AIM. EnSilica is a designer and supplier of mixed signal Application Specifi
Companies: EEE FARN FCAP HZM JLP NSCI SRE
COPL’s Q1’22 production of 1,114bbl/d was up 2% q/q. COPL also held Cuda’s production of 477bbl/d as security against its arrears, taking its entitlement production up to 1,591bbl/d. COPL’s sales were US$7.1mm (+22% q/q) and with Cuda’s share this was US$9.8mm in total. The pre-hedging operating netback was just under US$50/bbl (+18% q/q). There was a realised hedging loss of US$0.9mm (loss of US$3.5mm on crude sales offset by a gain of US$2.6mm on butane costs). Capex was only US$3mm (down >70%
Companies: Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited
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