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ING reported a low-quality beat, overdelivering on other income, fees and cost of risk but missing on NII and costs. The NII trajectory will remain at the core of the share price sentiment going forward with the announcement of a new buyback while the management pledge to return to its 12.5% CET1 ratio target provided some limited positivity.
Companies: ING Groep NV
AlphaValue
ING posted an excellent Q2 built again on continued momentum in deposit margins, good deposit volume growth and a still-low pass-through rate. Opex was also a positive development thanks to lower regulatory costs and incidental items, while asset quality remained untouched. The management maintained all of its 2023 and 2025 financial targets. The excess capital situation continued to build up with an update due in Q3-23.
ING published excellent results with strong top line and bottom-line beats. The top line was again driven by rising deposit margins while the bottom line was further helped by contained costs inflation and a reduction in the cost of risk. The management announced a new €1.5bn buyback program which should add to the bank’s 50% dividend payout ratio and support the bank’s valuation.
This is our first report on Benelux banking behemoth, ING Groep N.V. The bank achieved satisfactory results in the fourth quarter despite the difficult climate and managed an all-around beat. ING's financial results demonstrate that growing NII momentum is a tailwind for the bank, while fee income has shown to be quite durable. Despite the indexation-related inflationary pressure in some areas and ongoing investments to implement its plan, costs remained controlled. Moreover, mortgage lending to
Companies: ING Groep NV Sponsored ADR
Baptista Research
ING realised a correct quarter, marked by a strong increase in underlying NII (excluding net negative TLTRO impact) but a beat on total income which was supported by less sustainable other income. Costs were a bad surprise due to inflation but loan losses saw a welcomed improvement from last quarter, resulting in a PBT beat. 2025 total income guidance was upgraded but 2023 C/I ratio was disappointing. No new buy-back was announced for now but we expect more in 2023.
ING published a mixed Q3, impacted by two large incidentals due to the loan moratorium in Poland and the unwinding of a hedge in Belgium. Excluding the loan moratorium impact, NII would have shown good progress thanks to higher margins. The management is confident that the NII tailwinds should be even stronger than disclosed during the investor day in June. Combined with continued distribution through a third buyback programme, this will likely lead to an upgrade in our estimates.
ING exhibited a mixed Q2 with positive surprises on both revenue and cost of risk, but a miss on costs, mostly on incidentals and regulatory costs. The capital position remained solid and the distribution of excess capital continued. 2025 targets set during the investor day (June) were maintained while the short-term outlook may be uncertain due to the current macro-environment.
ING held its Investor Day this Monday, the first one since the pandemic began. The financial targets unveiled were, for the most part, a confirmation of the previous long-term financial ambitions: 5-10% annual fee income growth, a 50-52% C/I ratio and a 12.5% CET1 ratio by 2025. Still, the group upgraded its profitability target, aiming for 12% RoE (vs 10-12%), made possible in part through higher NII, as indicated by the new 3% total income CAGR between 2022 and 2025.
ING realised a mixed Q1 as earnings were hit by provisions made in relation to its Russian exposure, to which net exposure declined to €4.6bn. Total income also saw a slight decline as the group’s NII suffered from a lower TLTRO impact as well as an impairment on its stake in its Thai subsidiary. The distribution policy in response to the excess capital situation looks undisturbed by the group’s heightened cost of risk, as an additional €1.25bn will be distributed through dividends and buy-backs
ING Group presented its Q4 21 earnings today. The results showed considerable growth in revenue thanks to a jump in net commission income. NII contributed only a bit despite growing volumes, with a one-off reclassification deteriorating the net interest margin. Expenses displayed slow growth but were still higher than expected and LLPs increased unexpectedly due to scenario updates. The excess capital situation strengthened as capitalisation improved. Long-term financial targets were maintained.
ING Group released yesterday its numbers for Q3 21. Net income was above expectations driven by a strong beat at the top line. The latter was driven by all businesses (including net interest income). The CET1 ratio at 15.8% was well above requirements (in line with the consensus) as management does not expect a material increase in RWA (Basel IV implementation) from here. We will revise upwards our EPS for ING Group but keep our Sell/Reduce recommendation (we prefer ABN Amro).
ING Group released this morning its numbers for Q2 21. The numbers were mostly in line with expectations, except for loan losses which were well below expectations. This was, however, expected given the recent publications from other global banks. Our expectations being below consensus’ forecasts, we will revise upwards our EPSs for 2021 and 2022. The CET1 ratio is at 15.7% and 15.4% under Basel IV. Management has a 12.5% CET1 ratio target and will pay therefore some dividends/SBB at the end of
ING Group released this morning its numbers for Q1 21. Net profit was 31% above expectations, driven by lower loan losses (expected) and higher net interest income (only driven by a higher contribution from TLTRO). The underlying numbers were rather below expectations even if the investment case remains intact with a high amount of capital to be paid back to shareholders in the next quarters as well as a decreasing cost/income ratio.
ING Group released this morning its numbers for Q4 20. These were better across-the-board. Net interest income (under pressure at ABN Amro or KBC) was above expectations, while the generous capital distribution policy (2019, 2020 and interim 2021 dividends expected to be paid at the end of 2021) supported by a high level of capital should support the share. A normalisation of the cost of risk in 2021 at 25bp (vs consensus at 40bp) should be supportive as well.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ING Groep NV. We currently have 104 research reports from 6 professional analysts.
Proposed share-for-share merger with Northgate
Companies: Redde Northgate PLC
Arden Partners
Lowland Investment Company’s (LWI’s) unconstrained, multi-cap investment policy differentiates it from most peers in the AIC UK Equity Income sector. It offers investors broad market exposure, outside of the large, traditional ‘income stocks’ at a 13% discount to NAV. The underperformance of small- and mid-cap companies versus larger peers has slowed and a turnaround would be very positive for LWI. Portfolio returns are already benefiting from acquisition activity, spurred by low valuations, and
Companies: Lowland Investment Co PLC
Edison
Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.
Companies: Foxtons Group Plc
Zeus Capital
PCI Pal’s FY23 results show revenue growth of +25% to £14.9m, gross profit growth of +31% to £13.1m at a margin of 88%, and an outlook confirming robust momentum in H1 24. The FY23 results are as expected following the August trading update, and FY23 Total Annual Contract Value (TACV) is +23% yoy to £16.4m, with ARR +14% yoy to £12.6m due to £3.1m of contracts in deployment. We expect ARR will increase +35% and +31% to £17.0m and £22.2m in FY24 and FY25, as management lands and expands following
Companies: PCI-PAL PLC
Cavendish
Tetragon Financial Group (Tetragon) posted a 6.4% net asset value (NAV) per share total return (TR) in US dollar terms in FY23. Tetragon’s returns normally have a low correlation with broader markets, and therefore its FY23 performance was below the 26.3% return of the S&P 500 Index, which rallied on the artificial intelligence (AI) theme. Tetragon’s FY23 return on equity (RoE) of 5.5% was below its target of 10–15% pa. That said, its performance since listing was within the target range at 11.3
Companies: Tetragon Financial Group Limited
Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long
Companies: Vp plc
Equity Development
On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div
Companies: PTAL GHH IGP MSLH PINE NXQ EQLS NXR AXL
Vector Capital is an established commercial lending group, focused on secured short-term and bridging loans in the property sector. This morning, the group has reported full year results to 31 December 2023, illustrating the challenging market backdrop. While underlying trading was robust, with good demand being seen for new loans, provisions for bad debts relating to historical loans of £728k in the year led to a decrease in PBT to £2.1m (WHI est. £2.4m, FY22 £2.8m). Looking ahead, although VCA
Companies: Vector Capital PLC
WHIreland
Companies: Equals Group Plc
Canaccord Genuity
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