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Once again, the market’s fears over the sustainability of the net interest margin have proven misplaced as confirmed by the quarterly surprise and the group’s updated guidance for 2024.
Companies: CaixaBank (CABK:BME)CaixaBank SA (CABK:MCE)
AlphaValue
The management has upgraded its 2023 expectations and is likely to do the same for 2024 in the first quarter of next year. This reflects a slower-than-expected deposit repricing which could be less accidental than officially stated, paving the way for a more resilient recovery in profitability.
The quarter enjoyed stronger net interest rate tailwinds and more resilient asset quality trends, thus enabling the management to upgrade its full-year guidance.
The fourth quarter results enjoyed a stronger-than-expected net interest margin recovery. The Euribor tailwind will remain very strong this year. However, this will be mitigated by weaker non-interest income, strong cost inflation, and an increased cost of risk.
Like its peers, the group has enjoyed the full benefit of interest rate hikes without having to share this with employees and depositors, or book provisions for an asset quality deterioration. The management believes that these ideal operating conditions will largely recur in 2023.
While the quarter showed strong fee income generation, the earnings beat was also attributable to non-sustainable factors, thus limiting the upgrade potential in our view.
Less supportive short-term outlook for protective films Following very strong volume growth last year, the protective film business faces a high comparison basis (from Q2 22 onwards) while its end markets (construction and interior) are not as supportive, reflecting more adverse economic conditions. Pricing is expected to remain a strong driver combatting the continued spike in polyethylene prices, which should ultimately limit margin expansion. Fashion catching up, Museum Solutions not yet at
Companies: Chargeurs SA (CRI:PAR)CaixaBank SA (0ILK:LON)
BNP Paribas Exane - Sponsored Research
Like many of its peers, CABK views the current environment as the best in the world, as if the only potential outcome of the escalating tensions between the West and the East was the end of negative interest rates. Not only the group’s view is already largely factored in the consensus expectations (and ours), but it could prove too optimistic in our view.
Q1 22 sales tracking ahead Q1 22 sales tracked 9% above our expectations at EUR204m, up 8.1% like-for-like. The upside to expectations was driven by stronger trends in protective films (+22%) and fashion (+58%) while healthcare came short against a high comparison basis. The museum business (+25%) continued to benefit from the recovery in retail and events activities as well as the return of long-term projects. Pricing ramping up Prices were a major driver in Q1 22. In protective films, they
In our view, the underlying quarterly trends were in line with expectations thus enabling the management to reiterate its full-year guidance.
Slight adjustments to our FY22-23 outlook EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2022 : € 1.32 vs 1.36 -3.18% 2023 : € 1.48 vs 1.52 -2.36% We have incorporated the FY21 figures, with the group's net result outperforming our forecast by €0.24 per share. This was mostly explained by a higher operating performance for CPF and CHS, slightly offset by a lower than expected operating result for CFT-PCC. For FY22-23, the main changes to our forecast stem from a slight cut to our operating margin assumpti
Q4 21 sales sharply ahead of forecasts Chargeurs posted Q4 21 sales of EUR191m, up 43%, of which 41% was LFL. This came 20% above our EUR160m (+20%e LFL) estimate. The upside to expectations was driven by stronger trends across the board except at the healthcare solutions division (against high comps). Revenues stood 19% above 2019 level on a LFL basis. FY 2021 EBIT in line reflecting input cost headwinds FY 21 EBIT came in at EUR51m, down 36% YOY (against Covid boosted earnings in 2020) and
The fourth quarter operating trends are in line with the group’s 10% RoTE objective set for 2022 (without any interest rates support). Ongoing strong fee income generation, merger-related cost savings and the benign cost of risk will help absorb net interest margin headwinds.
Stronger than expected Q3 21 sales trends Chargeurs posted Q3 21 sales of EUR173m up 2% of which 0.7% LFL. This came 13% above our forecast of EUR153m (-10% organic growth). The upside to expectations was driven by stronger trends at CPF, CFT PCC and Luxury Materials. Strong CPF, CFT PCC gradually returning to normal CPF (+28% LFL) continued to see strong trends driven by demand in construction and price hikes. CFT PCC (+20% LFL) saw a strong momentum in the US where sales were above 2019 lev
The quarter exceeded expectations on lower loan impairments but slightly disappointed on the top-line front driven by low activity levels.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CaixaBank SA. We currently have 114 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
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