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02 Aug 2023
H1 postview: strong numbers across the board
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H1 postview: strong numbers across the board
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON) | 1,886 358.4 1.0% | Mkt Cap: 56,673m
- Published:
02 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Sanson Tristan ST | Daurignac Alicia DA -
Pages:
12 -
Orders, sales, EBIT and cash all well ahead of expectations
H1 results beat consensus by 7% on sales and EBIT. Orders came in at GBP21bn vs GBP18bn expected. Versus our forecast, the beat was spread throughout the group, with in particular an 11% sales beat in Maritime (9% above at the EBIT level), reflecting accelerated spend profile on the Dreadnought program, and 30bps margin beat in US Platforms and Services (EBIT 8% above our forecast) from the strength of the European armoured vehicle Hagglunds, Ship Repair and munitions businesses. Air also beat our EBIT by 7%, from both 5% better sales and 20bps higher margin. FCF beat massively consensus forecast, exceeding estimates by GBP741m, driven by receipts of customer advances on new contracts, mainly in Air.
Guidance increased on Dreadnought boost and overall strong trading momentum
Group organic sales growth guidance was lifted by 200bps (5-7% growth now expected assuming USD/GBP at 1.24), partly due to faster sales recognition on the Dreadnought submarine program. Underlying EBIT growth was revised 200bps as well (to 6-8%), with a stronger impact at EPS level: 500bps increase, compounded by a reduction in Underlying Finance cost (GBP220m, improved by GBP40m) and tax rate guidance this year (19% guided this year vs 21% previously). The 2023-25 FCF guidance was massively increased from ''above GBP1.2bn'' to ''above GBP1.8bn'', and the 2023-25 FCF outlook lifted by GBP0.5bn (to GBP4.5-5.5bn), implying that the FCF upgrade is sustainable. This confidence in future cash flows underpins the launch of a new buyback program of GBP1.5bn.
Surprising top-line momentum, but still not enough to turn buyers
Despite being materially exposed to slower growth in the sustainment and support defence businesses, BAE continues to surprise positively on its ability to generate strong sustainable top-line development. This is reflected in our earnings update, which underpins our fair value uplift from 997p to...