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30 Jul 2025
First Take: BAE Systems - Guidance upgrade at H1
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First Take: BAE Systems - Guidance upgrade at H1
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON) | 1,687 -261.5 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 50,639m
- Published:
30 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Ben Bourne -
Pages:
4 -
Interim summary
H1 sales increased 11% in the period, with all sectors contributing growth. Organic growth was 9%.
Underlying EBIT was up 13%, increasing H1 return on sales to 10.6%.
Underlying EPS increased 12% to 34.7p (2% ahead of consensus).
Free cash outflow of £368m is inclusive of movements on customer advances and is in line with expectations (consensus £376m outflow).
Order intake of £13.2bn remained high across all sectors and the period closed with an order backlog of £75.4bn.
Outlook:
Sales and profit growth guidance increased by 100bps, to 8-10% and to 9-11%, respectively…
…due to strong H1 and momentum; management have increased confidence in the rate and duration of future growth.
EPS and FCF (>£1.1bn) guidance reiterated. Slightly higher tax plus buyback programme removing fewer shares than originally anticipated due to the higher price mean EPS is still expected to grow between 8 and 10%.
Guidance is on a constant currency basis (sensitivity is consistent; a 5-cent movement impacts underlying EPS by c.1.4p).
European and US opportunities abound (e.g. Turkey Typhoons, US FMS, Germany, US Golden Dome).
Valuation / view:
The shares are on a FactSet consensus CY25 P/E of 24.4x, falling to 22.1x next year with a FCF yield of 3.4%.
The Group looks well set for long term growth; recent company visits reaffirmed this. The backlog of £75bn and pipeline of c£180bn (the combined represents >8x annual sales), gives excellent visibility and duration of growth.