This content is only available within our institutional offering.

02 Aug 2023
First Take: BAE Systems - H1 beat & another £1.5bn buyback

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
First Take: BAE Systems - H1 beat & another £1.5bn buyback
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON) | 1,981 663.6 1.7% | Mkt Cap: 59,540m
- Published:
02 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Saul Larthe -
Pages:
4 -
H1 expectations materially beaten
BAE delivered interim orders, sales, EBIT, EPS & FCF all up and above consensus expectations.
The order backlog increased to £66bn with £21bn of orders in H1 (vs. £18bn in H1 22). This continues to enhance visibility.
Sales increased by 11% at constant currency to £12.0bn (consensus £11.2bn).
Adj EBIT £1.23bn (+7% vs cons); Adj EPS 29.6p (+12.5% vs cons).
FCF £1.07bn vs. consensus of £741m.
H1 dividend increased by 11% and a further £1.5bn buyback over 3 years, to start after completion of current programme.
All sectors growing well and Dreadnought funding acceleration the major growth driver for Maritime.
FCF driven by receipt of advances on contract awards mainly in Air.
Upgraded guidance
Sales growth guidance is increased by 200bps from 5% to 7%, reflecting the accelerated spend profile on the Dreadnought programme, good demand and operational performance across all sectors.
Underlying EPS guidance range is increased by 500bps from 5% - 7% to 10% - 12%, reflecting higher profit, higher interest income and a reduction in the expected tax rate to 19%.
In-year free cash guidance increased by £600m to >£1.8bn.
Valuation
On existing estimates, a CY24E EV/EBITDA of 8.8x is a 30% discount to US peers.