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03 Apr 2020
First Take: BAE Systems - Market Update

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First Take: BAE Systems - Market Update
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON) | 2,018 40.4 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 60,659m
- Published:
03 Apr 2020 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Rory Smith -
Pages:
4 -
Q2 disruption expected
Trading in Q1 was not materially impacted by COVID-19, with several significant orders received from US customers, although disruption is expected in Q2, mostly in the UK business given what the company is seeing at this point. We expect this is more in terms of workforce disruption, as the Group has a large order backlog consisting mainly of Government contracts on multi-year programmes. As such, we would expect any impact on revenues to be more of a deferral, rather than lost outright. We heed caution around Engine and Flight Control products given risk to Civil Aero build rates, however this is a relatively small part of Electronic Systems and we do not see a material impact. There may also be some disruption to JV supply chains in Europe.
Good liquidity, dividend deferred out of prudence
We understand that undrawn facilities are c.£2bn and total liquidity is c.£4.6bn. In the interest of prudence and stakeholder goodwill, the final dividend decision has been deferred with a review on 30th July. We think there would have to be a significant deterioration in trading and cash performance for this not to ultimately be approved. As a strong signal of intent, the c.£1bn one-off extraordinary pension contribution as previously announced will go ahead.
Acquisitions on track
The Military GPS and Airborne Radios businesses acquisitions are on track to complete in the coming months – financing remains in place. The UTX – Raytheon merger is expected to complete today, 3rd April.
Board appointment
Announced yesterday, Jane Griffiths will join the Board as a Non-Executive Director. Previously held roles include various executive level positions with Johnson & Johnson. In her most recent role before retirement, Ms Griffiths was head of Actelion where she gained experience of integrating international acquisitions. Current roles include as NED of Johnson Matthey. Nick Rose agreed to extend his term as a NED for up to one further year given the current challenging period.
Our view
We place our forecasts and TP under review, as we are doing for all companies currently withdrawing guidance at this time, however we do not see this statement as altering our fundamental investment case.