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23 Feb 2023
First Take: BAE Systems - Prelims; orders and FCF stand out
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First Take: BAE Systems - Prelims; orders and FCF stand out
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON) | 1,687 -261.5 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 50,639m
- Published:
23 Feb 2023 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Saul Larthe -
Pages:
4 -
FY22 beat consensus
BAE has delivered a strong set of results across the headline numbers, with YoY growth in sales, EBITA and FCF. EPS of 55.5p is in line with our number but +3% vs. consensus on revenue of £23.3bn (1% ahead of consensus), and EBITA of £2,479m (1% ahead of consensus). The dividend is up 7.6% and the pension is still in a surplus, net debt is now at £2bn.
Highlights
Free cash flow is a highlight at £1.95bn vs INVe: £1.27m (+54%) and consensus of £1.25m (55% beat). Order intake a record £37bn, up over 70%. The backlog is now £59bn vs £53bn at H1. Upgrades to FCF with the three-year target for 2023-25 set at £4.5bn, a £0.5bn upgrade to each year.
Outlook
FY23 guidance unchanged: Sales growth 3-5%, EBIT growth 4-6%, further margin expansion (programme performance, mix, efficiency programmes), EPS growth 5-7%. The business is performing well. 2023 is set to be a good year of growth but management sees this as just the start.
Valuation
On a CY23E P/E of 15.7x, the shares trade on a c15% discount relative to US Defence Primes and a c25% discount on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 9x. The strength of its global and diverse portfolio, backlog and on-going uptick in overall operational performance will be of note to more international investors. Buy.