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24 Jul 2024
Goodbody - Marston's; Q3 FY24 – wet weather impact on current trading; early JV sale accelerates de-leverage

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Goodbody - Marston's; Q3 FY24 – wet weather impact on current trading; early JV sale accelerates de-leverage
Marston's PLC (MARS:LON) | 37.9 0 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 240.5m
- Published:
24 Jul 2024 -
Author:
Patrick Higgins | Fintan Ryan -
Pages:
3 -
Softer 16 week trading; Pub EBIT outlook unchanged
Marston’s has reported +2.4% LFL sales growth for the 16 weeks to 20 July (+5.2% ytd LFL, total sales +6.2%). This compares to +4.0% LFLs in the 1st 6 weeks of the period and is on a tough weather-boosted +10.9% comp. Strategically, MARS is accelerating the sale of its Brewing JV, with the £206m gross proceeds (and de-leverage), now expected by the end of July. The loss of the 2 months of JV trading will weigh on FY24 EPS (c.10%) but we expect no changes to underlying Pub EBIT delivery, nor importantly for overall FY25 and beyond momentum.
Outlook unchanged, ex-JV
”The trading momentum seen year-to-date provides the Board with confidence that, adjusting for the impact of CMBC, performance will be in line with market expectations.” For FY24, VA consensus expects +5.7% LFL sales to £900.6m, £53.9m adj PBT and 6.8p adj EPS. We model +6.4% LFL sales to £901m, Pub EBIT +19% to £149m, adj PBT +51% to £54.9m (with a £14m FY Brewing JV contribution) and +30% adj EPS to 6.7p.
Our view
Shares are +13% ytd leaving MARS trading on 5.3x/4.4x cal. 2024/25 P/E and 7.9x/7.1x EV/EBITDA. Short term trading remains volatile on unfavourable weather, but the reiteration of Pub EBIT outlook is reassuring. The upcoming sale of MARS’ 40% holding in the CMBC Beer business for a net £202m (with the company still guiding to run-rate c.£18m in financial cost reduction from FY25) accelerates deleverage to below £1bn. It also simplifies the overall investment case ahead of a H2 CMD which will outline management’s strategy to elevate the in-Pub customer experience to drive LFL growth into the mid-term.