This content is only available within our institutional offering.
03 Feb 2026
Additive to the US growth issues
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Additive to the US growth issues
Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,875 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 41,746m
- Published:
03 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
31 -
The ''additive-free'' trend has continued to build momentum in US tequila
US consumer interest in ''additive-free'' tequila has been building over recent years and despite a crack-down on the use of the term by the Mexican regulator in advertising, share gains for brands with strong ''additive-free'' credentials appear to be accelerating.
We suspect US class action lawsuits are not helping the perception of Diageo''s brand
Diageo faces US class action lawsuits which allege that Don Julio and Casamigos are not 100% agave as advertised. The issue is separate to being ''additive-free'' and Diageo has asserted that the claims are baseless. However, at a time of heightened sensitivity to being ''natural'', press articles / online reviews calling into question product authenticity is likely damaging to consumer perception.
There is category down-trading but Diageo is also losing share within Super/Ultra premium
Diageo has a built an exceptionally strong position in Super/Ultra premium US tequila but has little exposure below this. What''s more, while huge comps. for Don Julio play a part in slower recent YOY growth, the reality is the brand''s sequential market share within Super/Ultra premium is trending down. We think Diageo US tequila sell-out could easily remain in double-digit decline in cal. H126.
We continue to see downside risk to the key metric in US spirits. We maintain our U/P rating.
Given what we acknowledge is strong investor desire to back the new CEO, Diageo bulls argue almost any bad news (whether it''s material cuts to consensus EPS or the dividend) is already reflected in the stock. Putting aside our doubts about this bull case, we believe a pre-requisite for a meaningful re-rating is arresting cuts to consensus LFL sales in US spirits. Here we continue to see downside risk and our North America LFL sales estimates are materially below BBG cons. in both FY26e (-7.3% vs. cons. -4.6%) and more importantly in FY27e (-4.0% vs. BBG cons. +1.1%) when the...