What happened? We recently caught up with Diageo to get a summary of what it has been saying to investors over recent weeks (Diageo reports Q126 sales on the 6th November). Overall, we felt the tone from the company was neutral with some caution on Apac (China baijiu) but more reassuring comments on North America. We think consensus Q1 LFL sales is likely to remain broadly unchanged at c.-1% (cf. BBG cons. -0.6% at present). There was no change to Diageo FY26 guidance. Points of colour: . US: the phasing related benefit in Q3 had mostly reversed in Q4 and there was further tariff related uncertainty related to tariffs on the UK / EU in August which may drive some forward buying in Q125. Don Julio will lap strong sell-in in Q1 (the bottle size range was extended in the PY) and while Nielsen trends have sequentially softened slightly, Guinness is seeing strong momentum. . Apac: In China, Diageo noted that the impact of tightened regulation increased following FY25 results and is having an impact on the baijiu category. In India, Maharashtra is around 16% of sales per USL. . Europe, LAC, Africa: In each of Europe, LAC and Africa we did not get the sense that momentum has materially changed sequentially. However in Brazil, while it will not impact Q1, Diageo noted the recent news about counterfeit beverages which is having an impact on recent consumer spirits demand.