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21 Jan 2026
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Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,859 9.3 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 41,384m
- Published:
21 Jan 2026 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
We recently caught up with Diageo to get a summary of what it has been saying to investors over recent weeks (Diageo reports H126 results on the 25th February). Overall, we felt the tone from the company was neutral and we do not anticipate any meaningful shift in consensus expectations for H126 /FY26 LFL sales or EBIT. There was no change to Diageo''s FY26 guidance.
Points of colour:
US: While sell-out in the OND (festive) season in the US looks considerably weaker (per the Nielsen data), going into the start of fiscal Q2 Diageo''s sell-in (and therefore stock levels) at the start of the quarter were normal.
China: Q2 LFL sales in the Chinese White Spirits business declined c.-52% (per Diageo''s China subsidiary reporting) impacted by a combination of later CNY timing and efforts to bring trade inventories to appropriate levels.
Brazil: The issue of counterfeit spirits in the Brazilian market has impacted consumer confidence particularly in the on-trade channel (c.30-40% of the industry) which is more of dynamic in fiscal Q2 vs. Q1 given the timing of when the news of methanol poisonings came out (start of Oct-2025).
Europe: Diageo has done a lot of work on commercial excellence and in the on-trade channel (which is not captured by the European Nielsen data). Turkey and MENA also continue to do slightly better than the rest of the segment.