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07 Jul 2025
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Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,734 806.2 2.8% | Mkt Cap: 38,600m
- Published:
07 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
We recently caught up with Diageo to get an update on what the company has been saying to investors over recent weeks (Diageo reports FY25 results on 5th August). Diageo''s outlook remains unchanged.
BNPP Exane View:
Overall, while the key messages from the company remain unchanged, we felt the tone of the company was slightly cautious with respect to organic sales growth in FY26 and we would not be surprised to see consensus shift down toward +1.5% (cf. +2.6% per co. cons and +3.2% per BBG cons). Points of colour below:
FY26 LFL sales: Diageo reminded that at the Q3 update it did not repeat its previous comment (with H1 results) of expectation (without tariffs) of a sequential improvement in organic sales growth in FY26 vs. FY25.
North America: There were no new messages on the US with market trends broadly unchanged but Crown Royal doing slightly better in the scanner data. Diageo re-iterated its expectation that the majority of favourable phasing benefits in Q3 will reverse in fiscal Q4.
FX: Diageo has not provided guidance on likely FX transaction impacts in FY26. While MXN cost exposure is likely to be a tailwind there are also other currencies to consider and more colour will be provided at the FY25 results update.