What happened? Yesterday, we attended a Guinness Deep Dive investor event in Dublin (Ireland) hosted by the Diageo management and IR teams. We left with two positive takeaways: 1) following Guinness'' strong growth in recent years, Diageo sees a significant runway for further growth off a larger base across the brand''s key markets (GB, Ireland and US) and has / is investing in capacity expansion that will allow it to fulfil the consumer demand for the brand; 2) Diageo has mapped out many scenarios for FY26 and in any scenario it is committed to delivering c.USD3bn of FCF which it views as a floor. While it certainly appears that there are more good things to come for Guinness, we continue have concerns that the wait for the rest of the business will be longer than the market expects. Below we summarise key points of note from the event. Guinness specific . Guinness intro: Guinness is Diageo''s 3rd largest brand and accounted for c.10.5% of group sales in FY24 (c.66% of Diageo Beer sales). Guinness has grown at c.+15% 3-yr sales CAGR (vs. c.+8% for the beer category) with Guinness 0.0 at least doubling every year since launch. The top 3 markets (GB, Ireland and US) together account for c.60% of Guinness sales. . Guinness RtM: The brand strength of Guinness allows for an efficient and highly profitable route-to-consumer: c.80% of sales are finished goods from Ireland, this includes imports by Diageo (Ireland; GB; US; S. Korea; Taiwan; Japan) and imported by partners (Europe, CCA, SA); 20% are made by 3rd party partners who purchase Foreign Extra Stout (concentrate) and brew and sell under license for markets such as Australia, NZ, SEA, LAC and EABL. Diageo has successfully optimised its route-to-market in Africa to make it asset light and profitable. Volumes in both Nigeria and Cameroon have seen significant positive inflection since switching to partnerships with local operators with broader distribution footprints. . Investment and capacity:...