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Post CMD thoughts
Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,847 637.3 1.9% | Mkt Cap: 41,127m
- Published:
16 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Menteshashvili Giorgi GM | Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
15 -
Post CMD thoughts
In this report we summarise our thoughts and estimate revisions post Diageo''s recent CMD.
Takeaway 1: ''The best is yet to come''
If we were to summarise the main thrust of the CMD in one phrase it would be the above comment from CEO, Ivan Menezes.
Takeaway 2: Confidence in the new mid-term growth target (+5-7%)
We note that Diageo appeared very confident in delivering its new mid-term organic sales growth target. As to the drivers behind this, they are as follows: spirits gaining share of TBA; premiumisation; Diageo''s now more advantaged portfolio (leader in 4 of the 5 fastest growing spirits categories); premiumisation (54% of its business now being in premium plus and 25% in super premium plus) and it having built the (digital) capabilities to be able to execute much better.
Takeaway 3: Not concerned on macroeconomic pressures
We note that Diageo did not appear unduly concerned on the impact of inflation starting to put consumer budgets under pressure. Taking one topical example, it highlighted that its Scotch portfolio has been outperforming both spirits and TBA in Latin America.
Takeaway 4: Expect further MandA
Diageo highlighted that one should expect further MandA and that it has been a significant growth driver over recent years (e.g. Casamigos contribution to US growth). This said, it will remain picky.
Estimate revisions
We revise our FY21e/FY22e/FY23e EPS by +3-4% reflecting near-term / mid-term guidance.
Conclusion
Revelatory CMD? No. A confident, well positioned company? Yes. TP to GBP44 from GBP43. Outperform.