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19 May 2025
Q325 trading update: conf. call: more open to substantial disposals
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Q325 trading update: conf. call: more open to substantial disposals
Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,704 -502.7 (-1.7%) | Mkt Cap: 37,938m
- Published:
19 May 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
9 -
BNPP Exane view
The main point of note from the call is that Diageo appears to be more open to substantial disposals (above regular portfolio trimming). Beyond this, to our minds there was only limited incremental colour. As to the shares, while we can understand the modest positive reaction today given positioning / weakness YTD, if anything we believe the underlying substance of the update further supports our view that there is downside risk to consensus FY26 organic sales growth expectation.
Highlights: QandA
. FCF: consensus has some huge ranges on FCF and Diageo delivery has been inconsistent in recent years. In FY26 capex will remain elevated albeit coming down from FY25 level given in-flight plans. Looking forward, reduced capex will be a focus. On working capital there is more opportunity to unlock on both receivables (commercial AandP and trade spend) and on inventories. There will also be work on mature liquid stocks. Lastly on expected cost savings from Accelerate to support cash flow even without a recovery short-term.
. Cost savings: will give more colour on phasing and cost to achieve at FY results. 4 main buckets including trade spend; agility to be able leverage scale; supply chain efficiency.
. Disposals: seen through reviews some opportunities for substantial changes above portfolio trimming. Focus will be to maximise value for shareholders. The comment on FY28 ND/EBITDA should give comfort as will be well within range and it will be FY28 at the latest.
. Outlook: with strong Q3, believe on track to deliver FY25 outlook. On FY26 intentionally did not reference expectation for top-line next year given the level of uncertainty.
. Price / mix: there is a lot of promotion out there but talked at H1 about price / pack opportunities and H1 performance was well balanced.
. US consumption: Nielsen / NABCA only tracks 40% of the US. In January felt the industry was getting a bit of momentum but Feb/March were very tough across all...