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06 Jun 2023
Diageo : Scotch is hot, shares are not - Buy
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Diageo : Scotch is hot, shares are not - Buy
Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,860 130.2 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 41,406m
- Published:
06 Jun 2023 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
6 -
This investor event was the first time Debra Crew has presented to the investor community since being announced as Ivan’s successor. We thought she handled difficult questions about the US slowdown very well, addressing them in as much detail as she could provide at this time of the year. Diageo has suffered some further share loss in the US off-trade retail channel, but the on-trade channel remains resilient. Diageo price increases on US tequila have moderated growth in the short-term, but will benefit the business over the longer term. There is some softness at the high end and low end of the US market, but it is still expected to grow mid-single digits, with Diageo taking share as previously communicated at the 2021 CMD. Recent results from ShuiJingFang revealed a weak CNY, though consumers are slowly starting to spend again. Our FY23E/24E EPS is trimmed 4%/3%, partly due to FX.
Scotch is a major growth driver of the business, and Diageo’s largest single category exposure (27% of sales). The category is the second largest in International Spirits, after Vodka, and the largest category at premium-plus price points. It has a broad geographic footprint and Diageo is present in all regions with its blends and malts. Scotch grows about 100bps faster than the global TBA market. Diageo is the global leader in Scotch with c. 40% market share – nearly twice the size of the next largest player. Diageo has evolved its Scotch marketing over time, introducing new brands and line extensions.
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have grown Scotch at the fastest rate of any region over the last 4 years (+15%, ahead of Greater China at +10%). Consumers in the region skew to premium-plus price points in Scotch and 2/3 of Diageo’s LAC A&P spend is behind its Scotch brands. Amazingly, Diageo drove over 70% of Scotch category value growth in the region over 2017-2022 and the company now has a regional market share in Scotch of 70%.