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  • 01 Aug 2023

First Take: Diageo - Expecting gradual improvement in US


Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,798 -440.5 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 40,031m


  • Investec Bank
    • Alicia Forry, CFA

    • 4 pages


 

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First Take: Diageo - Expecting gradual improvement in US


Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,798 -440.5 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 40,031m


  • Published: 01 Aug 2023
  • Author: Alicia Forry, CFA
  • Pages: 4
  • Investec Bank


Broadly in-line for FY23; better outlook for the US in FY24 The full year results are slightly ahead at the top-line & EBIT level and a very tiny miss at EPS level. FY23 organic sales of +6.5% (Vuma consensus +6.4%) is in-line with expectations (volumes were -0.8% and price/mix was +7.3%). Organic operating profit +7.0% (consensus +6.3%) is modestly ahead of expectations with 15bps of organic margin expansion. Adj. EPS of 163.5p (consensus 164.9p) is light by less than 1% so is essentially an in-line result. The dividend is raised by 5% while adj. EPS grew 7.6%. FCF of £1.8bn is considerably below the consensus of £2.2bn. The outlook for FY24 is for growth to be in-line with the medium-term guidance (of 5-7% organic sales growth & 6-9% organic operating profit growth), with H2 stronger than H1 given the comps, but H1 will nevertheless be an improvement on the softer H2 just reported. Diageo will also begin reporting in USD rather than GBP from FY24. A new $1bn buyback is announced for FY24. The North America division delivered flat organic sales growth in FY23, after having delivered +3% in H1. All the decline was in US Spirits (-1%), as Beer and Canada grew. Tequila still grew 15% in North America, but vodka, RTDs, Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal and Bulleit all declined. The company states that demand is normalising and that inventory levels at distributors are now back to normal levels there (depletions had been 2% better than shipments, indicating resilient underlying consumer demand). All other regions delivered solid growth over the FY, and Europe even accelerated sales growth in H2. There is a pre-recorded presentation that will be available at 7:15am BST followed by a Q&A conference call session at 9:30am BST.

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