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12 May 2021
First Take: Diageo - Modest upgrade to FY21
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First Take: Diageo - Modest upgrade to FY21
Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,798 -440.5 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 40,031m
- Published:
12 May 2021 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
4 -
Providing guidance for double-digit EBIT growth
Heading into the end of its financial year, management feels confident enough to issue explicit guidance of ‘at least 14%’ organic EBIT growth in FY21 (to June). Our forecasts, which are now under review, had expected +8.3%. Consensus according to Vuma expected +10.3%.
Diageo has also announced a re-commencement of its share buyback programme of up to £4.5bn (£1.25bn has already been purchased prior to the suspension), which is now extended to run until the end of June 2024. The company expects to be at the higher end of the 2.5-3.0x net debt/EBITDA level by the end of the programme.
Performance has been stronger than expected across the Spirits sector through the crisis, and within that Diageo has been a relative outperformer. North America has been the standout region for the company, but execution has also been strong in tougher markets like Europe and some of the emerging markets.
Our forecasts and TP are under review, but should be moving up.