This content is only available within our institutional offering.
26 Jan 2023
First Take: Diageo - Slightly ahead but US slows
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
First Take: Diageo - Slightly ahead but US slows
Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,798 -440.5 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 40,031m
- Published:
26 Jan 2023 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
4 -
Minor bottom-line beat, but solid top-line indicates robust consumer demand
Interim adj basic EPS of 100.9p is 1% above the Vuma consensus of 99.9p.
Organic volumes +1.8% in H1 (consensus +2.5%) are slightly weaker than expected, but this is offset by much better price/mix.
Organic net sales growth of +9.4% (consensus +7.9%) is comfortably ahead of expectations.
Adj. EBIT of £3,194m (consensus £3,192m) is an in-line result.
FCF was £817m (consensus £1,705) which was weaker than expected; this is mainly due to higher working capital outflows and higher cash tax. The interim dividend is nevertheless raised 5%, reflecting confidence in the balance sheet (leverage at 2.5x EBITDA) and growth prospects.
US slowing a bit?
By region, North America was a little low at just 3% organic growth in H1 (consensus +6.4%). Europe, Asia Pacific and LatAm & Caribbean all grew organic sales at a double digit rate. The US could potentially worry the market, but we note looking back that longer-term industry growth in the US has typically been 3-4%.
Outlook unchanged
The outlook is reiterated. As a reminder, the medium-term guidance is organic sales growth of 5-7% and organic underlying EBIT growth of 6-9%.
Consensus currently expects FY23 organic sales +6.8% and organic EBIT +6.9%. We therefore expect consensus to move up only very slightly.