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  • 27 Jan 2022

First Take: Diageo - Strong H1 & upgrades expected


Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,854 2363.9 7.4% | Mkt Cap: 41,277m


  • Investec Bank
    • Alicia Forry, CFA

    • 4 pages


 

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First Take: Diageo - Strong H1 & upgrades expected


Diageo plc (DGE:LON) | 1,854 2363.9 7.4% | Mkt Cap: 41,277m


  • Published: 27 Jan 2022
  • Author: Alicia Forry, CFA
  • Pages: 4
  • Investec Bank


Executing well with the wind at its back Organic net sales growth of 20.0% (consensus +17.1%) is comfortably ahead of consensus, with all regions growing top-line at a double-digit rate. Growth was boosted by the on-trade recovery and continued strong outperformance of the Spirits category, in addition to Diageo’s own market share gains. Diageo grew or held share in 85% of its net sales value in measured markets. EBIT grew organically by 24.7% in the half (consensus +20.6%). The company had previously issued guidance for organic EBIT growth of “at least 16%” with the late November CMD statement, so a strong result had been expected – but this appears to be much stronger than anticipated, with 131bps of organic operating margin expansion. Price increases, productivity savings and operating leverage helped to more than offset marketing spend ahead of organic sales growth. Adj EPS of 85.6p (consensus 82.5p) is a 4% beat. The interim dividend is raised 5%. Net debt/EBITDA was 2.5x as at 31st December. The company completed £500m of share buybacks in the half, and is now bringing forward the timeline to complete the £4.5bn buyback sometime during FY23. The outlook suggests confidence in the business momentum over the second half, and the medium-term guidance is reiterated. Consensus currently looks for 13.9% organic net sales growth and 18.6% organic EBIT growth over FY22. This appears well under-pinned and is likely to nudge up by 3-4%. The pre-recorded presentation by management is on the website and the live analyst Q&A call is at 9:30 GMT.

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