Interim results highlight that while the first five weeks of cal. ’26 saw an improvement in sales rates, this has not been as marked as the prior year, with the market remaining cautious. Margin recovery has also been challenging, with house prices providing little relief against persistent cost inflation and incentives. Continued planning challenges have also reduced the pace of site openings. If a further step up in sales rates materialises, current market expectations could be achieved. However, we take a more cautious stance and reduce our adj. PBT forecasts by 18%/19%/5% in each year. We make no changes to our Gleeson Land forecasts, with five sales expected to complete during H2. Despite short term headwinds, we continue to believe Gleeson’s affordable product positions it well over the medium term and we stay at Buy.
