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30 Oct 2024
3Q24 production - better than feared
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3Q24 production - better than feared
Glencore plc (GLEN:LON) | 366 -26.7 (-2.0%) | Mkt Cap: 43,128m
- Published:
30 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
9 -
What happened?
A largely in-line 3Q24 production report should be taken well as most investors we have recently spoken to had been expecting a weak contribution from copper and a potential guidance downgrade. YTD copper production of 705kt is currently tracking towards the lower end of the guidance range (950-1,010kt) but 3Q24 showed a +9% sequential uplift. Hitting the mid-point of the range will require a +13% q/q uplift into 4Q24. EVR had a solid first quarter of production (5.7Mt) following deal closure in early July. No call will be held alongside the release.
BNPP Exane View:
Copper production of 243kt was in-line with company compiled consensus, representing a +9% sequential uplift. Relative to expectations, Africa came in lighter than expected while ex-Africa (Collahuasi and Antamina) with both benefiting from higher feed grades and volumes.
Total coal production of 33.6Mt was also in-line with expectations, both broken down by thermal and coking coal. It was the first contribution from EVR with 5.7Mt of production from its 82 days of contribution following deal closure. Thermal coal of 25.9Mt was -8% y/y primarily from Cerrejon due to weather impacts and permitting delays hitting planned mine sequencing.
Zinc production of 226kt was -2% vs consensus with a +7% sequential increase driven by the ramp-up of Zhairem. Nickel production of 18.1kt was -14% vs consensus. Cobalt was +10% vs consensus and ferrochrome was +6% vs consensus.
There were no changes to 2024 production guidance across metals. Similarly, marketing guidance remains in the USD 3.0-2.5bn adjusted EBIT range.