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14 Jul 2020
Halma : Confident enough to guide - Buy
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Halma : Confident enough to guide - Buy
Halma plc (HLMA:LON) | 3,664 1465.6 1.1% | Mkt Cap: 13,910m
- Published:
14 Jul 2020 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Scott Cagehin -
Pages:
7 -
Strong FY20 results. Halma recorded yet another year of progress with revenues growing by 11% and profits by 9%. The FY dividend is increased by 5%, the 41st consecutive year of at least a 5% increase, making the Group one of the few companies in the FTSE100 which continue to pay a dividend. Cash generation was strong, 97% conversion, and net debt increased only due to over £200m of acquisition expenditure. Halma maintains plenty of liquidity to navigate this unique period and, with Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.1x, has ample headroom to take advantage of acquisition opportunities.
Outlook uncertain, but resilient so far. Clearly the outlook is uncertain, but trading in April-June (Halma’s Q1’21) has demonstrated resilience. We lower our forecasts to incorporate Q1 trading (-4% on revenues and -13% on profits) and fall within the newly guided FY21 PBT range of 5-10% lower year-on-year. Despite an understandable anticipated H2 weighting, we understand this to be only modestly different to historical norms. We expect a rebound in FY22E, but set our forecasts prudently at historical growth levels, noting potential stronger recovery upside post Covid-19 lows. We also believe that acquisitions will feature in FY21 providing further potential upside to forecasts.
We remain positive. Halma has a proven business model which should continue to generate revenue and profit growth beyond the impacts of Covid-19. The critical nature of its products, geared towards non-discretionary demand and ESG-related growth drivers, should ensure that the Group continues to deliver. Halma has proven to be more resilient than most and is well positioned to capitalise when markets recover. Given its premium valuation we assume some share price volatility in the near-term, but expect the positive long-term investment case to ultimately drive the shares forward. We remain Buy as we look through this extraordinary period.