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27 Sep 2024
Ceres Power : Powering up - Buy

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Ceres Power : Powering up - Buy
Ceres Power Holdings plc (CWR:LON) | 101 -2.7 (-2.6%) | Mkt Cap: 195.2m
- Published:
27 Sep 2024 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Lydia Kenny -
Pages:
9 -
H1 progress: Revenue increased by 144% to £29m and record H1 order intake of £47m grew to £103m by 31 August. Gross profit increased by 217% to £22.9m, a margin of 80%. The adj. EBITDA loss significantly reduced to £9.0m (H1 2023: £23.5m loss), demonstrating the operational leverage. Moreover, cash outflow reduced to £14m from £21m in H123, resulting in net cash of £126m. Importantly, cash outflows peaked at £42m last year.
Significant endorsements: Global manufacturers and systems developers Delta, Denso and, most recently, Thermax have chosen to partner with Ceres this year to leverage its technology and the flexibility of its licencing model. In short order, Ceres has progressed from SOEC investment phase to commercial partnerships and a demonstrator being commissioned in India by Shell. Meanwhile, SOFC manufacturing scale-ups are progressing with Doosan (ahead) and Bosch (behind) in implementing volume manufacturing.
Outlook: An FY revenue guidance range of £50-60m, based on contracts secured to date, is reiterated. Moreover, management is implementing a cost rationalisation that will reduce overall expenditure by c.15%.
Estimates: We upgrade FY revenue to £55m, in-line with the reiterated guidance and beyond, reflecting recent momentum. Our FY24/25/26E adj. EBITDA rise from -£38m/-£29m/-£5m to -£24m/-£20m/+£4m (see overleaf).
Our view: We believe the market has missed how much progress Ceres has made of late. SOEC commercial acceleration and cost restructuring flagged in today’s results are encouraging. Interest rate moderation, political stability, and increased focus on energy security also provide a more supportive macro backdrop. We reiterate our Buy recommendation, leaving outer year assumptions and therefore our DCF-derived TP unchanged.