Tesco delivered a strong Xmas LFL performance 3Q UK LFL of +3.8% (cons +3.6%, BNPP +3.5%) and UK Xmas of +4.1% (BNPP +3.0%, in line with cons, but ahead of buyside expectations post Kantar data), as well as performances over Xmas in Central Europe (+4.7% LFL) and Booker (+1.4% LFL), were positive surprises. Lack of guidance upgrade does raise questions, but we largely agree with the answers Tesco''s reaffirmed Retail EBIT guidance, implying c.0% growth in 2H (vs 10% in 1H) appeared conservative then and is arguably harder to understand after sales growth ex fuel in the first 19 of the 26 weeks in period was +3.3%, in line with the +3.5% in 1H. While we recognise that the investments behind this (availability, more staff in stores, prices, range) have led to the highest market share gains (+78bps last Q) ever seen from Tesco (and with minimal space growth), we do think: 1) it''s conservative - to temper expectations and reflect the inherent consumer uncertainty (we forecast FY25 Retail EBIT of GBP2.96bn vs guidance of around GBP2.9bn); 2) it should be read with an eye to the overall 5% full retail EBIT growth it implies - we think a solid aspiration for Tesco going forward; and 3) these investments do give us more confidence that Tesco can at least maintain its market share next year, despite the tough comp, underpinning a more sustainable investment case. Ultimately, consistency should drive further re-rating, which TSCO is positioning itself for With this note we tweak down our estimates to reflect profit guidance below our expectations. However, stronger than forecast sales over Xmas, driven by volume, with investments now in the base, mean we see Tesco being able to maintain momentum while following the industry in passing through operating cost inflation (which we believe it will). Our profit bridge (see overleaf) suggests our above consensus estimates are well underpinned in this scenario. Helped by topline growth, cost savings and retail media,...