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10 Apr 2025
Off the call - flexible with plenty of firepower, but rational

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Off the call - flexible with plenty of firepower, but rational
Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 417 17.1 1.0% | Mkt Cap: 27,357m
- Published:
10 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Joyce Rob RJ -
Pages:
8 -
BNPP Exane View?
If you had ''flexibility'', ''firepower'' and ''rational'' on your Tesco FY25 results call bingo card, then congratulations. Without giving away any competitive specifics or telling us what would get to the top or bottom end of their FY26 profit guidance range, Tesco did their best to simultaneously convey that they have the capacity and the intent to defend share, will be investing in price, but are and will act rationally in a rational market. As expected, they consistently referenced their strong momentum, driven by value credentials, and their intention to protect share longer term - which we believe is the right message. However, we do note a return to referencing strong comparables making share gains tricky on a short term basis. Alongside Ken''s comments on cost/price intensity potentially peaking in the summer and the market slowdown seen in the most recent external data, this will likely mean investors may not feel any urgency to jump in in the near term, especially if consensus settles above the midpoint of Tesco''s range. Overall, with the stock now -15% YTD vs SXXP -3% we''re back where we were pre Liberation Day, with the investment case the same for us. On a one year and beyond basis, we think Tesco is doing the right thing and will win, but in the shorter term the datapoints won''t all be positive.
Other details:
On the guidance: which implies Group FY26e EBIT down 9% YoY at the midpoint, underlying UK margins down c.50bps (-30/-70bps at the top/bottom of the range). Tesco was keen to emphasise that it gives them ''flexibility and firepower'', with a determination to maintain the winning value formula and market share they have worked so hard to achieve. CFO stated that depending on ''how things play out'' they could come out at either end of the range, but did note they Tesco will be rational and only invest where they have to - saying that they won''t invest if they don''t have to.
On market share: Tesco took this one back to...