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12 Jun 2025
Tesco 1Q26 sales update - LFL ahead, guidance maintained.

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Tesco 1Q26 sales update - LFL ahead, guidance maintained.
Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON) | 423 -2.5 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 27,721m
- Published:
12 Jun 2025 -
Author:
Joyce Rob RJ -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
Tesco released 1Q26 sales data (13 week period ending 25th May 2025), with the key UK LFL of +5.1% coming in slightly above the bar, which we believe was around the +4.7% we forecast. Guidance was reiterated, with operating profit at GBP2.7bn-GBP3.0bn (vs GBP2.9bn BNPPe) and retail FCF in the medium-term between GBP1.4bn-GBP1.8bn (vs BNPP GBP1.7bn in FY27), with Tesco stating the market remains intensely competitive.
Within the UK, Tesco flag food sales +5.9%. The other divisions were strong across the board, with Ireland +5.5% and Europe +4.1% standouts.
BNPP Exane View:
While we believe maintaining guidance at this stage makes sense, particularly given Asda''s commitment to further price investments to come in 2H, we believe some investors were hoping for an upgrade. As such while the headline LFL is strong, we see the stock flat to slightly underperforming post this print and pending the conference call at 9am, albeit we consider the investment case unchanged and continue to see Tesco winning and executing strongly.
Likely direction of consensus:
We expect immaterial changes to consensus post this print (some at the low end may tweak up FY EBIT forecasts on the strong LFL).
Conference call:
Tesco will host a conference call at 9am UK time.