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30 Sep 2020
Tearing it (and 15 questions for management)
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Tearing it (and 15 questions for management)
boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 13.2 0 (-1.1%) | Mkt Cap: 183.8m
- Published:
30 Sep 2020 -
Author:
Charlie Muir-Sands -
Pages:
9 -
Sales and profits undented by supply chain allegations
44% sales growth in Q2, implying no material slowdown since the Leicester supplier ''sweat shop'' broke, was ahead of our above-consensus expectations, as well as that implied from the social media engagement analysis in our recent upgrade report. H1 adj EBITDA margins leveraging 20bps was also a positive surprise given COVID-related challenges. We increase adj EBITDA forecasts by 6-9%, sitting above increased guidance, our DCF-based target rises to 420p and we reiterate our Outperform rating.
UK accelerates despite UK allegations...
UK growth accelerated to 42% in Q2 (to end August, from 30% in Q1) despite: i) allegations emerging in late June of widespread worker abuses in UK supplier factories, ii) subsequent loss of wholesale accounts, iii) 14ppt tougher comparative basis qoq, and iv) the reopening of store-led rivals after the end of lockdown. Following Friday''s publication of Alison Levitt QC''s independent supply chain review, today''s presentation elaborated on the company''s extensive commitments to improving supply chain compliance and associated corporate governance. Implementation and ongoing monitoring will of course be required to convince investors fully that this issue is now being appropriately addressed. However, at the risk of tempting fate, the threat to brand reputation and consumer demand now appears to have passed. Strong current trading in September further suggests 14-21% 2H sales growth implicitly guided is very conservative (Exane estimate +33%).
...with COVID-related gains slightly offsetting COVID-related headwinds
145bps marketing leverage from higher ROI, 100bps from lower returns rates and, implicitly, 230bps headwind on distribution costs from higher air freight costs are all themes consistent with that of other online retailers. Reassuringly, increased FY adj EBITDA margin guidance of c.10% (from 9.5-10.0% prior) allows for tailwinds fading and headwinds...