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16 May 2023
First Take: boohoo Group - Finals - emphasis back on profits
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First Take: boohoo Group - Finals - emphasis back on profits
boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 13.2 0 (-1.1%) | Mkt Cap: 183.8m
- Published:
16 May 2023 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
Finals, 52 weeks ending 28th February
FY23 adj. EBITDA has come in line with recent guidance, at £63.3m, -49% YoY, versus consensus at £62m, which implies EBITDA margins fell to 3.1% in H2 (H1: FY23: 4%, H2 FY22: 4%) with profitability impacted by higher return rates and ongoing pandemic-related freight and COGS costs.
Full year gross margins were down 190bps (H1: -210bps), reflecting Covid-related cost pressures on raw materials and freight, and stock clearance.
Full year Group sales were in line with expectations and were -11% YoY, with P4 sales -17% YoY (cc) This compares with P1: -10% YoY, P2: -13% YoY, P3: -13% YoY, (all cc). We note Active customers are down 10% YoY. By geography, P4 YoY (cc): UK sales were -20% (H1: -4%, P3: -11%), ROE sales were -14% (H1: -4%, P3: -11%), USA sales were -3% (H1: -33%, P3: -17%), ROW sales were: -36% (H1: +8%, P3: -15%).
Net cash was £5.9m although free cashflow was strong up £30.2m after a sizable reduction in capex and inventory - pleasingly inventory is -36% YoY. As of today, the group has £330.9m of liquidity headroom.
Outlook & view
Management is implementing a ‘Back to Growth’ strategy and now expects revenues to decline between flat and -5% in FY24 with H1 revenues down as much as 10% to 15% as the company focusses on profitable sales (consensus FY24 sales growth is: +2% YoY). Therefore, adj. EBITDA for FY24 is expected to improve YoY as a result of operational gains, cost efficiencies and cost deflation in the supply chain. As such, EBITDA margins are now expected to be between 4% and 4.5% (consensus: 3.9%) which implies EBITDA of between £69m to £78m (consensus: £70.5m). Capex is anticipated to be between £80m to £90m while year-end net debt / adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately 1x, reducing thereafter. Medium-term guidance is now for adj. EBITDA margins to return to 6% to 8% and getting back to double digit revenue growth
Whilst margin tailwinds are supportive for improving profitability this year, returning margins to medium-term targets will require revenue growth. The ongoing decline in active customer growth suggests churn remains high and does not bode well for the boohoo brands’ health. We remain at HOLD