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10 Mar 2022
First Take: boohoo Group - P4 – Soft but relief warranted
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First Take: boohoo Group - P4 – Soft but relief warranted
boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 13.2 0 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 185.2m
- Published:
10 Mar 2022 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
P4: 3 months ending 28th February 2022
Group P4 sales are +7% (P3: +10% YoY, P2: +9%, P1: +32%), leading to a full year sales growth outcome of +14% – in line with recent downgraded guidance at P3 for full year sales growth of +12% to +14% (INVe FY22E: +12%).
Specific geographic performances have not been disclosed, but the UK performance is described as “strong” in line with P3 trading (P3: +32% YoY, P2: +19%, P1: +50%). International performance continues to be impacted by longer customer delivery times as a result of pandemic-related supply chain pressures but, against soft comparatives, P4 trading in ROW returned to growth having been negative for most of FY22 (P3: -21% YoY, P2: -16%, P1: -15%). As a reminder, ROE trading at P3 was -12% (P2: -17%, P1: -14%) and USA was -14% (P2: +8%, P1: +43%).
Outlook, guidance & view
Full year adj. EBITDA is expected to be £125m, towards the lower end of P3 guidance (£117m to £139m) and implying H2 EBITDA margins are c. 4% (-500bps YoY), with profitability impacted by higher return rates and ongoing pandemic-related inbound freight cost inflation.
Going forward, consensus assumes margins return to 8% within two years, with 15% p.a. 2 year CAGR sales growth (FY22-24).
We have had concerns about boohoo for some time now – see our June note here and December note: Not so fast (fashion) - 16-12-2022). We continue to believe that, at best, recovery will be a slow and protracted affair; at worst, there could be no recovery at all if boohoo is losing customers to new up and coming peers. We remain unenthused by the acquisition of Debenhams marketplace, with growth overly reliant on a UK business that could be approaching maturity. Whilst the valuation is by no means demanding on 14.5x FY23E PE, forecast risk still exists here, in our view – although we acknowledge the shares may experience some relief this morning.