Research Tree Research Tree Logo

  • Try our Investor Tool
  • Login
  • Sign Up
  • Providers
  • Companies

Research Tree Logo

  • Features
  • Pricing
  • RNS/News
  • Contact
  • Try our Investor Tool
  • Login
  • Sign Up
  • Providers
  • Companies
  • Features
  • Pricing
  • RNS/News
  • Short Interest Tracker
  • Blogs
    • Academy
    • Insights
    • News
    • Research Tree
    • The Naked Fund Manager
  • Ideas & Picks
    • Ideas Hub
    • Stock Pick League
    • Themes & Screens Hub
  • Explore Content
    • Regions
      UK Rest of EMEA N America APAC LatAm
    • Sectors
      Automobile Industry Banks Building & Construction Chemicals Discretionary Personal Goods Discretionary Retail Energy Financial Services Food & Drink Food Production Health Household Goods & DIY Industrial Equipment, Goods & Services Insurance & Reinsurance Leisure, Tourism & Travel Media Other Real Estate Resources Staple Retail Technology Telecoms Trusts, ETFs & Funds Utilities
    • Small / Large Cap
      UK100 UK250 UK Smallcap UK Other Main Markets Other
    • Private/EIS
      EIS Single Company EIS/SEIS Funds IHT Products SEIS Single Company VCT Funds
  • Providers
    • Free/Commissioned
      Align Research BRR Media Capital Access Research Edison Equity Development Fidante Partners Five Minute Pitch TV goetzpartners securities Limited Hardman & Co Independent Investment Research Kepler | Trust Intelligence piworld.co.uk Proactive Investors Progressive Equity Research QuotedData Radnor Capital Partners Research Tree Trinity Delta
    • High Net Worth Offering
      Allenby Capital AlphaValue Arden Partners Cenkos Securities finnCap GMP FirstEnergy Hybridan Liberum Louis Capital Marten & Co Medley Global Advisors N+1 Singer Northland Capital Partners SP Angel Stockdale Securities VSA Capital WHIreland Whitman Howard Zeus Capital
    • Institutional Offering
      Align Research Allenby Capital AlphaValue Arden Partners BRR Media Capital Access Research Cenkos Securities Edison Equity Development Fidante Partners finnCap Five Minute Pitch TV GMP FirstEnergy goetzpartners securities Limited Hardman & Co Hybridan Independent Investment Research Kepler | Absolute Hedge Kepler | Trust Intelligence Liberum N+1 Singer Northland Capital Partners piworld.co.uk Proactive Investors Progressive Equity Research QuotedData Radnor Capital Partners Research Tree SP Angel Stockdale Securities Trinity Delta VSA Capital WHIreland Whitman Howard Zeus Capital
    • Video/Audio Interviews
      BRR Media Edison Equity Development Five Minute Pitch TV piworld.co.uk Proactive Investors Research Tree
  • Contact
Companies >
UK >
Gambling >
GVC >
Research >
GVC Holdings - Parliamentary U-turn

  • 15 Nov 2018

GVC Holdings - Parliamentary U-turn


GVC | GVC | 649 220.7 5.5% | Mkt Cap: 3,776m


  • Edison
    • Victoria Pease

    • 3 pages

Gambling image



 
Gambling image



Following the resignation of Sports Minister Tracey Crouch, the UK government has bowed to pressure to bring forward the reduction in FOBT stake limits, from October 2019 to April 2019. The planned increase in remote gaming duty (from 15% to 21%) will also commence in April. We reduce our FY19 EBITDA by a further £95m and net debt/EBITDA now peaks at 3.0x in FY19. Our FY20 estimates are broadly unchanged.


Following the Budget announcement on 29 October and the resignation of Tracey Crouch, the government has brought forward the timing for the FOBT stake reduction. The move from £100 stake to £2 stake will now commence in April 2019 rather than October 2019. The increase in remote gaming duty (from 15% to 21%) will also happen at the same time. A positive by-product is that GVC will likely not be liable for a c £695m (£674m + interest) to former LCL shareholders (from the original M&A agreement), given that legislation will need to be enacted prior to the April implementation of the £2 stakes cut.


UK online revenues comprise c 20% of group revenues and we estimate that UK online gaming (not sports) comprise c £500m. The 6% increase in RGD will therefore have an annual impact of c £30m on group EBITDA. The additional six months in 2019 mean a further £15m reduction in EBITDA. Together with an additional £80m impact from the FOBT timing, we reduce 2019 EBITDA by £95m. Our FY20 P&L forecasts remain broadly unchanged, although we note that we now include share-based payments in our normalised EPS forecasts, to be consistent with consensus.


The LCL acquisition has cemented GVC’s leading global position and the £130m+ cost savings are expected to contribute to significant EPS accretion. Net debt to EBITDA now peaks at 3.0x in FY19, but strong FCF should rapidly reduce leverage. The stock has fallen c 30% since August on the back of the regulatory changes and trades at 10.3x EV/EBITDA and 15.0x P/E for FY19e, appropriately towards the top end of the peer group.


Sign up for free to access

Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.

Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.


Get Started
Already a member? Log in here
See all the research we have on this company.

More Content

More Content

Solid Q4 results despite tough comparatives

Companies: GVC

AlphaValue

Bitesize Briefings - GVC Holdings

Companies: GVC

Edison

4Q18 trading update

Companies: GVC

Whitman Howard

Most popular equity research this week | 22 Oct - 2 Nov

Companies: HMIARSATYMAVONCSRTCGSTIDEELMFPOHEADHILSHTGAMSMACFMKLWOXIGPARKSCPARSWRNOSUSTRIVTCZTFDISWMHAMERFPMDEMGEMRBLVNGRIRMMHDYEKTSHGSXXRKHJHDTRAKSOLGPHDVNETDTGLAMPDGCALLHURCAMLAREANXIOGPCARBGPKGHTWDPIERHAYDREDDCAKENAH7DIGRORGTLYW7LJOGMNOKEYSGYGINDIIBPORBWABBYPPBGVCGENLSFEFSTGEEC

Research Tree

GVC’s £700m winning bet

Companies: GVC

AlphaValue

Useful Links

  • Features
  • Pricing
  • RNS/Newswires Feeds
  • Providers Hub
  • Company Hub

Account

  • Login
  • Free Trial - Join Now
  • Contact
Follow us on Linkedin Follow us on Twitter

Share:

Heap | Mobile and Web Analytics

Copyright © 2019 Research Tree | All Rights Reserved. | Terms of Service and Privacy Policy and Statement on Cookies

Research Tree will never share your details with third parties for marketing purposes. Research Tree distributes research documents that have been produced and approved by Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) Authorised & Regulated firms as well as relevant content from non-authorised sources, who are not regulated but the information is in the public domain. For the avoidance of doubt Research Tree is not giving advice, nor has Research Tree validated any of the information.

Research Tree is an Appointed Representative of Sturgeon Ventures which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Tools licensed and contents implemented and optimized by Digital Look Ltd.

DigitalLook |Web Financial Group

©1999-2013 – Digital Look Ltd. A Web Financial Group Company All rights reserved. Legal notice.

Top
  • Home
  • Features
  • Pricing
  • RNS/News
  • Short Interest Tracker
  • Blogs
    • Academy
    • Insights
    • News
    • Research Tree
    • The Naked Fund Manager
  • Ideas & Picks
    • Ideas Hub
    • Stock Pick League
    • Themes & Screens Hub
  • Explore Content
    • Regions
      • UK
      • Rest of EMEA
      • N America
      • APAC
      • LatAm
    • Sectors
      • Automobile Industry
      • Banks
      • Building & Construction
      • Chemicals
      • Discretionary Personal Goods
      • Discretionary Retail
      • Energy
      • Financial Services
      • Food & Drink
      • Food Production
      • Health
      • Household Goods & DIY
      • Industrial Equipment, Goods & Services
      • Insurance & Reinsurance
      • Leisure, Tourism & Travel
      • Media
      • Other
      • Real Estate
      • Resources
      • Staple Retail
      • Technology
      • Telecoms
      • Trusts, ETFs & Funds
      • Utilities
    • Small / Large Cap
      • UK100
      • UK250
      • UK Smallcap
      • UK Other Main Markets
      • Other
    • Private/EIS
      • EIS Single Company
      • EIS/SEIS Funds
      • IHT Products
      • SEIS Single Company
      • VCT Funds
  • Providers
    • Free/Commissioned
      • Align Research
      • BRR Media
      • Capital Access Research
      • Edison
      • Equity Development
      • Fidante Partners
      • Five Minute Pitch TV
      • goetzpartners securities Limited
      • Hardman & Co
      • Independent Investment Research
      • Kepler | Trust Intelligence
      • piworld.co.uk
      • Proactive Investors
      • Progressive Equity Research
      • QuotedData
      • Radnor Capital Partners
      • Research Tree
      • Trinity Delta
    • High Net Worth Offering
      • Allenby Capital
      • AlphaValue
      • Arden Partners
      • Cenkos Securities
      • finnCap
      • GMP FirstEnergy
      • Hybridan
      • Liberum
      • Louis Capital
      • Marten & Co
      • Medley Global Advisors
      • N+1 Singer
      • Northland Capital Partners
      • SP Angel
      • Stockdale Securities
      • VSA Capital
      • WHIreland
      • Whitman Howard
      • Zeus Capital
    • Institutional Offering
      • Align Research
      • Allenby Capital
      • AlphaValue
      • Arden Partners
      • BRR Media
      • Capital Access Research
      • Cenkos Securities
      • Edison
      • Equity Development
      • Fidante Partners
      • finnCap
      • Five Minute Pitch TV
      • GMP FirstEnergy
      • goetzpartners securities Limited
      • Hardman & Co
      • Hybridan
      • Independent Investment Research
      • Kepler | Absolute Hedge
      • Kepler | Trust Intelligence
      • Liberum
      • N+1 Singer
      • Northland Capital Partners
      • piworld.co.uk
      • Proactive Investors
      • Progressive Equity Research
      • QuotedData
      • Radnor Capital Partners
      • Research Tree
      • SP Angel
      • Stockdale Securities
      • Trinity Delta
      • VSA Capital
      • WHIreland
      • Whitman Howard
      • Zeus Capital
    • Video/Audio Interviews
      • BRR Media
      • Edison
      • Equity Development
      • Five Minute Pitch TV
      • piworld.co.uk
      • Proactive Investors
      • Research Tree
  • Contact
  • Sign Up
  • Sign In