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04 Feb 2021
FY20 results and 15 questions for management

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FY20 results and 15 questions for management
Unilever PLC (ULVR:LON) | 4,636 -185.4 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 113,669m
- Published:
04 Feb 2021 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Vesterinen Heidi HV | Karia Vyoma VK -
Pages:
14 -
Summary of Q4/FY20 results
Q420 LFL sales growth at +3.5% was in-line with company consensus but c.40bp below VA consensus. All regions with the exception of Asia/AMET/RUB were ahead of consensus expectations (Unilever made reference to declines in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand). While margins were c.50bp below consensus expectations, Unilever made reference to c.90bp of additional costs/mix associated with Covid-19. EPS at EUR2.48 was in-line with consensus, with a lower than expected tax rate (23%) compensating for the margin shortfall.
News
We highlight that while Unilever commented that 2021 is the first year of its multi-year strategy, this does not mean that it is targeting 3-5% LFL sales growth with LFL underlying profit growth ahead of LFL sales growth in 2021.
Earnings
We leave our FY21e/FY22e/FY23e EPS broadly unchanged. While our FY21e/FY22e/FY23e EBIT estimates are reduced by c.(2)%, this is largely offset by below the line elements (e.g. tax).
Investment thesis
We believe that the relative valuation of Unilever does not reflect our belief that over the mid-term it should deliver c.4% top-line (LFL) growth with margin expansion.
Rating / target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our target price moves from GBP55 to GBP53.
15 questions for management
As Covid hopefully dissipates, should we expect that the related 90bp depression of your margins will dissipate as well?