Very decent results. No hurry to buy though.

The Q3 results were very in much in line with our and the market’s expectations. As the group had announced, they show some slowdown compared to H1 at a high level but a return to more solid growth going into FY24. A share buy-back was also announced, but we rather expect the share price to be “dead money” until next year (although we still like the group and its ability to perform).

A strong showing in Q2/H1 2, but less momentum going forward

Tenaris released a very strong (albeit expected) set of results for Q2/H1 23. Margins and sales of this kind were last seen in 2006 (!). That said, the momentum is slowing down with the (expected) decrease in the US market. The group argues that a bottoming out will take place in H2. We see a potential weakness of the stock (on momentum) as an opportunity to step in for those who are ready to wait for a few months.

Q1 23: impressive, but hard to beat in the future though

Tenaris posted excellent (consensus-beating) results for Q1 23. This stemmed from still supportive prices (more or less flat on average) but most of all volumes (+16% sequentially despite the high comparison basis). Cash generation was also impressive in the quarter. The outlook calls for a degree of slowdown from this very high level (as expected) but this raises the question of momentum seen from the investors’ point of view. We will revise our forecasts a tick upwards.

Great year-end 22…and a positive outlook despite the high basis

Tenaris released a rather impressive set of results for FY22. The outlook is very supportive, with prices seen as “stabilising” at the current high level, while EMEA should grow in volume. The net cash position increased a tick despite a massive working capital build-up, comforting the group’s acquisition strategy. We will upgrade our numbers again.

Q3 22: a strong set of results

Q3 22 results were solid, mainly due to prices. The group’s EBITDA margin was above targets and reached 32%. The current energy crisis certainly supports investments in the group’s end-markets. The outlook of the group is supportive for Q4 22 and going into FY23. We will revise our forecasts upwards, at least for the current year, but most likely also going forward.

H1 22: solid results in a supportive context

The Q2 22 results were very solid. Both volumes and prices were well oriented. The outlook is supportive. Current high energy prices can only support this view. We will upgrade our numbers after this release, with a potential impact on the valuation.

A very sound set of results and an upgrade to come.

The Q1 22 results were very solid. Both volumes and prices were well oriented. The outlook is supportive. Current high energy prices can only support this view. We will upgrade our numbers and target price after this release.

A solid Q4 21 and a reasonably positive outlook

The FY21 numbers came in higher than expectations. The recovery in drilling activity and OCTG prices in North America explain this performance. The EBITDA margin is still on the rise despite higher input costs. The net result is also boosted by the contributions from Ternium and Usiminas (steel makers, not consolidated). Overall, a solid set of numbers and a reasonably positive outlook. We will revise our numbers and valuation upwards after our target price has been reached.

A solid Q3, despite anti-dumping concerns

Rather strong revenue and profit numbers for Q3 21, despite higher energy and freight costs. The cash consumption was high, mainly due to WC build-up. The DoC opened an investigation into imports from Argentina, Mexico and Russia, which could possibly weigh on Tenaris as it partly exports from South America to the US (on top of its US production). We will fine-tune our numbers and valuation. Our recommendation probably needs to turn positive again after our target price has been reached.

The H1 21 results are well on track with forecasts

H1 21 sales supported by North and South America The momentum is slowed by the Middle East and Africa, as expected The group’s margins (EBITDA) are improving and should reach 20% for the full year The cash position remains high despite a higher working capital We will fine-tune our forecasts on this decent set of results

Q1 21 OK and a positive outlook

The Q1 21 results came in broadly in line with expectations The outlook calls for a further recovery in sales and margins Higher prices should compensate for higher input costs We will fine-tune our forecasts on the back of this release

FY20 slightly better than expected, more to come for the current year

The FY20 results came in slightly above consensus Cost-cutting has done the job, waiting for the top line to gradually recover in FY21 The outlook is encouraging at the margin level and should positively impact margins going forward We will upgrade our forecasts and valuation after this release

Q3 20: rather weak but improving

Revenues in Q3 were weak as announced They still show a sequential improvement Cost-cutting is paying off, mitigating the fall in volumes and prices The trough could be behind with a reasonably optimistic outlook

A rather weak Q3 outlook

Q2 was weak as expected due to oil prices and the pandemic The outlook for Q3 is very cautious In particular, America remains a concern given the group’s geographic exposure We will revise downwards our forecasts for the current year at least

No drama, but momentum is not yet back

FY19 results were a bit lower than expected Q1 20 should be in the same vein as Q4 19, i.e. below FY20’s expected margin The integration of Ipsco (US) will provide some room for extra profits thanks to synergies FY20 should show a moderate growth in earnings We will revise our forecasts most likely with no big change in our target price

i3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada site visit review

Last week we attended a site visit to i3’s assets in central Alberta in Canada – the company’s largest producing area. We were left with a favourable impression of the magnitude of the company’s operations in the region, of the professional operational running of these, and of the overall level of opportunity in this well-established oil and gas province.

Reabold Resources - Payment received from Shell

Good news for Reabold, which is set to receive £5.2m of the second tranche payment from Shell imminently for the Victory gas field it acquired last year. The final £4.4m payment is due once the development approval for the field is received from the NSTA in the coming months. These funds will allow RBD to progress its two onshore gas developments in the UK and Italy and consider further distributions to shareholders. Partner funding of these projects remains an issue, but RBD’s risk/reward profi

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

88 Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Plexus Holdings, Baron Oil, Harbour Energy, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, Arrow Exploration, Southern Energy, Serinus Energy, SDX Energy, Panoro Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, OKEA ASA, Equinor Source: FactSet, weekly change 27/11/23-1/12/23 Oil extended declines, closing out a sixth straight weekly drop, as the OPEC+ output cuts announced Thursday failed to dispel the market’s gloom over swelling global supplies. West Texas Intermed

Tower Resources (TRP LN) - Initiation Report (SPECULATIVE BUY, 0.12p/sh TP)

Cameroon: Ready for the Rig

Pan African Resources - Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts

On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit

Morning Note – 4 December 2023

New Debt Facility – Lowering TRR Cost of Capital

We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Like-minded farm-in partner to unlock Anchois

• Chariot is farming-out up to 55% in Anchois (Lixus licence) and 37.5% of the Rissana exploration licence to Energean for (1) up to US$75 mm in cash equivalents, including a US$50 mm loan convertible into Energean shares at a price of £20/sh or 3 mm Energean shares at Chariot’s option, (2) up to US$850 mm gross carry (US$170 mm net to Chariot based on US$850 mm x 20%) and (3) a 7% royalty on Energean’s share of revenue above a hurdle for gas price (we have assumed US$10/mcf). • The transaction

Baron Oil - Chuditch PSC – Six-Month Extension

Baron has been granted a further six-month extension to the Chuditch PSC. The end of Contract Year Two will now be 18 June 2024, at which time Baron will need to make a decision on entering Year Three. In the Third and final phase of the PSC, a final investment decision (FID) will be required on an appraisal well targeting the Chuditch discovery (Chuditch-2). Baron continues to make good progress in its discussions with potential funding partners, having previously announced that it is in “advan

Chariot - Delivering an Expanded Anchois Project

Chariot has signed a partnership agreement with Energean (LON:ENOG), funding Chariot and the Anchois project through an upfront consideration, deferred consideration and potentially a full carry to first gas, with Chariot retaining a material stake in the project. The partners will now accelerate the drilling and flow testing of the Anchois East well in 2024, with rig contract negotiations underway. The multi-objective well, designed as a future producer is being drilled to unlock up to an addit

SP Angel Morning View: China lithium stocks rally on prospects for market rebound

Southern Energy - 3Q Results and Comprehensive Update Note

Southern Energy delivered solid 3Q results with the focus of attention now turned towards the completion of 4 drilled uncompleted wells (“DUCs”). We see our investment thesis for Southern Energy – premised on the scale, location, quality, deliverability, low-cost nature of the company's Gwinville gas field in Mississippi, USA – very much strengthening based on our structural commodity price outlook and our growing confidence in the highly prolific Gwinville gas field, sharpening our interest in

Hartshead Resources - Fully Funded Solution

Hartshead has secured a funding solution with partner Rockrose Energy to fund 100% of the Phase I development costs. Under the agreement, Hartshead has the option to exchange an additional 20% licence interest for an uncapped free carry, thereby covering the total cost of the Phase I development project (financing backstop). Importantly, Hartshead maintains at its election the option not to proceed with the RockRose financing solution, and introduce other financing solutions (eg project debt, pr

SP Angel Morning View: Ford takes 8.5% stake in Indonesian nickel project as Automakers swim upstream

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.