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16 Jan 2024
4Q23 production: no fireworks

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4Q23 production: no fireworks
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON) | 4,312 -2867.5 (-1.5%) | Mkt Cap: 54,074m
- Published:
16 Jan 2024 -
Author:
Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
10 -
With 2023 guidance reiterated at the December CMD and 2024 announced at that time, it was unlikely today''s result would bring material surprises. All metals ended within their guidance ranges with normal deltas vs consensus on a quarterly basis. Please see variance table overleaf
4Q23 wrap
Considering RIO reiterated its 2023 production guidance in early December, we weren''t expecting any fireworks from today''s release. All metals finished 2023 within the most recently provided guidance range. Pilbara shipments (100% basis) were 86.6Mt, in-line with consensus. Aluminium (+2%) and bauxite (+6%) were both ahead of consensus. Copper was generally weaker as mined copper of 160kt was -6% vs consensus but just -1% vs our more conservative estimates. Refined copper of 46kt was -15% vs consensus and -11% vs our estimate. Escondida was -9% q/q on lower recoveries and grade and was the primary driver of the miss at both the mined and refined level. 2023 guidance for Pilbara unit cash costs was reiterated at the lower half of the USD 21.0-22.5/t (BNPPE USD 21.5, consensus USD 21.6). Copper C1 unit cash costs are now expected to be in the upper half of the USD 1.80-2.00/lb range though expectations were already for a more elevated figure (BNPPE USD 2.16/lb, consensus USD 2.04/lb).
2024 guidance unch as expected
Similarly, the 2024 guidance was only just a month old and with just half a month of production, revisions to 2024 were unlikely. RIO is targeting selective growth across its commodity mix with refined copper +40%, mined copper +11%, IOC +10% and alumina +3% as comparing the mid-point of 2024 guidance to 2023 actuals. Unit cost guidance for 2024 will be announced at the 2H23 financial results on 21 February 2024. We are forecasting 2024 iron ore unit cash costs of USD 22.2/t, +1% vs consensus and 2023''s guidance range of USD 21.0-22.5/t. 2024 copper C1 unit costs are forecast USD 1.73/lb, +6% vs consensus and 2023''s guidance range of USD 1.80-2.00/lb.