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22 Feb 2024
Copper to lead the way in 2024

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Copper to lead the way in 2024
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON) | 4,412 -2603.1 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 55,328m
- Published:
22 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Zeng Qiang QZ | Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
9 -
Results wrap
RIO delivered a boring but good 2H23 results. EBITDA was largely in-line with expectations, 2024 cash cost guidance for iron ore and copper is unlikely to move consensus and a final divi of USD 2.58/sh was slightly ahead of consensus. Please see our detailed breakdown of results here.
Copper ramp progressing
2023 copper production of 620kt increased +2% y/y with a further step up into 2024 (+11% at the mid-point). The higher volumes will also help lower unit costs, forecast to decline -23% y/y at the mid-point under newly issued guidance. The Oyu Tolgoi underground ramp-up continues to progress well with just USD 1.0bn of capex remaining (vs USD 7.1bn total capex), which will help boost FCF generation in the copper division moving forward. Remaining items at the mine are shafts 3 and 4 and the conveyor to surface (2H24), concentrator conversion (2Q25) and completion of primary crusher 2 (end 2025).
Aluminium operations improving
RIO achieved aluminium production of 3.3Mt in 2023 (+9% y/y), returning to full capacity in Kitimat and completed cell recovery efforts at Boyne during 3Q23. RIO, and its JV partner Alcoa, continue to advance Elysis, its zero-carbon aluminium smelting technology and key lever in the broader group''s roadmap to net zero.
Estimate revisions
Revisions to our earnings forecast are nonmaterial and thus our TP remains at 6,600p (Outperform). On a y/y delta, we expect Copper to deliver the bulk of the earnings growth, driven by volumes, lower unit costs and some stronger metal pricing. The division, on our estimates, will nearly double EBITDA y/y in 2024 and along with improved performance in Aluminium, will more than outweigh a modest decline from Iron Ore.