A mining company the size of Rio Tinto requires long periods of time to structurally change its metals mix. With Oyu Tolgoi underground commissioning and ambitions to double group copper production by the end of the decade, Rio Tinto is embarking on this journey. But iron ore will be the dominant driver of the PandL for some time, remaining 60% of EBITDA medium-term. We transfer coverage of Rio Tinto to Alan Spence, reiterate a Neutral rating and 5,260p TP. Quantifying Oyu Tolgoi''s Importance We''re visiting RIO''s Oyu Tolgoi mine the week of 10 July, the company''s key lever for growing copper exposure. Underground commissioning was achieved in 1Q23 and prioritising its higher grade ore (3x vs open pit) is a key factor in driving the mine''s average copper production from c340ktpa till 2027 to c500ktpa in 2028-2036 with a peak year of 600kt. RIO''s 66% share in Oyu Tolgoi is 10% of our NPV before corporate adjustments. At the site visit, we expect RIO will look to provide confidence over the timing of panels 1 and 2, shafts 3 and 4 (expected commissioning in 2024), total capex and any potential changes in the production/cost schedule laid out in the 2020 Feasibility Study. Early stages of copper growth but a re-rating will need to wait While a successful ramp up of Oyu Tolgoi will be key if RIO is going to succeed in its target of doubling copper production by the end of the decade, the equity is unlikely to draw a copper multiple. We forecast copper reaching 21% of group EBITDA by 2025 and 27% vs 2030 (vs 9% in 2022), while iron ore remains 60% of EBITDA in the medium-term and the primary driver of the PandL. Downside risks to Iron Ore create potential headwind to dividend We published takeaways from our recent China trip (here). While we came away more constructive on EVs, renewables and home appliances, the housing sector is struggling with fears of a double dip in resi and record high vacancies in non-resi. We see downside risk to iron ore...