No one should be surprised to read today’s trading update although it will provide sufficient fodder for short-term investors. Bulls will be comforted by revenue and profits being slightly ahead of our expectations or simply relieved by no further deterioration, whilst bears will find confirmation in deferrals of Q4/25 orders which led to higher-than-expected net debt at end-2025. However, the update provides a useful pretext for us to reiterate our view that the bigger prize lies in consolidation. Since our September 2025 note, it has been reported that the planned sale of Syntagon, the fourth-largest packaging machinery manufacturer, is attracting interest from companies like GEA Group and Coesia Group with final enterprise value mooted to be 2-2.3x 2025 revenues and 13-15x EBITDA. If uncertainty is the only certainty, then we are definitely uncertain that Mpac’s valuation of 0.9x and 6x 2025 forecast revenues and EBITDA, respectively, is correct.
