06 Oct 2020
FDM : Another encouraging update - Buy
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FDM : Another encouraging update - Buy
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON) | 135 0.3 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 147.9m
- Published:
06 Oct 2020 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Headcount trends: Mounties placed at end September were 3,721 (3,801 Sept 2019) which compares to 3,656 at end H120, signalling a slight uptick in numbers during the Q3 period. This growth is directionally important, suggesting FDM has managed to keep the new deal flow going over the summer and recent trading period to more than compensate for any Mountie stops. We had previously assumed a modest net reduction in Q3 and Q4 so we have upped our total FY20E billable headcount to 3,504 from 3,359.
Profit and cash trends: No comment on profitability has been given, aside of the company being comfortable with market expectations. While the overall headcount trends are encouraging, the group is funding a larger than normal ‘beach’ (Mounties out of training to be placed plus Mounties returned from clients) which will be a modest headwind on profits. We understand the overall unbillable numbers are continuing to reduce despite the company progressing back towards ‘normal’ levels of hiring in most locations. The cash balance of £55.8m (30th Sept 2019: £23.2m) is very strong, giving material support to the overall trading picture of the business.
Demand trends: As referenced in the statement, the general trend of improved trading has been seen across the business. Australia and Asia is largely trading well with good new deal flow. North America is broadly reverting closer to ‘normal’ trading conditions, although clearly it’s an ever changing picture regarding local lockdowns. The UK, we understand, has seen public sector demand pick up again, banking continues to be resilient, insurance has improved, and, as expected, travel / leisure is weak.
View: We nudge up our headcount estimate, but maintain profits, factoring in the beach cost and also conscious the environment is still uncertain. We see the business building strongly off this base in years ahead and reiterate Buy.