Q1 22: Bolloré gets off to a good start in 2022

Bolloré closed an impressive Q1 with strong revenue growth across all divisions. The group’s Transport and Logistics activity was boosted by the increase in freight forwarding and the Oil Logistics activity was supported by the strong rise in oil prices in the context of the war in Ukraine. The electricity storage and systems business also witnessed a boost in sales with higher sales of buses, plastic films and specialized terminals.

After UMG-led FY21, all eyes are on the Africa Logistics disposal

Bolloré’s 2021 was a milestone year, marked by the successful spin-off of Vivendi’s crown jewel UMG and the surprising announcement of a potential exit of Bolloré’s historical African logistics business. The 2022 outlook will be marked by this major deal, opening the door for a complete revamp of the HoldCo’s portfolio in the hands of the new generation, which formally took over the family endeavour in February.

An eventful Q3 elevated by solid revenue growth across core businesses

Bolloré closed an upbeat Q3, posting impressive revenue growth for its Transportation & Logistics business, as well as a sales surge for Oil Logistics boosted by rising oil prices. On the Vivendi side, the de facto takeover bid of Lagardère following its agreement signed with Amber Capital points to the family’s next major move after the successful completion of the UMG spin-off, which has led to the Bolloré parent holding an 18% stake on the now independent crown jewel.

French media rumours of Bolloré exiting African activities

Bolloré could be looking to exit its long-standing logistics activities in Africa according to French media. Although the company has not commented on the matter — so it remains all speculation — we see this potential move as a clear positive. Bolloré is faced with the high capital intensity of the business while affronting competitive pressures from deeper-pocketed and expanding rivals. Supportive valuations for logistics & port operators and the upcoming departure of Vincent Bolloré suggest th

Bolloré's grasp on Vivendi set for major shake up

In a letter addressed to Vivendi, Bolloré has committed to not ask the French market authority (AMF) for an exemption of launching a takeover bid on Vivendi, triggered if the HoldCo finds itself crossing the regulatory threshold of 30% of the share capital.

Q1 21: Transportation & Logistics shines, will 2021 be its breakout year?

Bolloré closed a strong first quarter for its Transportation and Logistics division, partly offset by the weakness from Oil Logistics, while Vivendi was led once again by top performer UMG (soon to be spun-off). The transport and logistics activity outperformance was driven by the strong trading environment stemming from global inventory rebuilding efforts as cyclical sectors emerge from a post-pandemic slumber, a trend that should extend through H1 21.

UMG spin-off adds a new dimension to the investment thesis

Vivendi has finally revealed its future plans for UMG, with Bolloré now finding itself as one of the major beneficiaries from the upcoming spin-off of what is, by far, Vivendi’s most valuable asset. This surprising development, which has been most likely orchestrated by Bolloré (up to a certain extent), could result in a complete rethink of the HoldCo’s investment strategy for years to come.

Q3: oil weakness weighs on an otherwise resilient top-line performance

Following the unexpected resilience shown by the transportation & logistics division in H1, the third quarter trading statement held fewer surprises. The second half seems less challenging than expected for Bolloré’s key businesses, with both communications and transportation & logistics posting very modest, but still positive, sales growth. Nonetheless, the continued weakness in oil logistics risks pulling down the group’s full-year results.

Surprising resilience of Transportation & Logistics in Q2

While we were anticipating Bolloré’s Q2 to be tough, particularly for its transportation & logistics division, an unexpected rise in air freight and positive price developments supported the division’s trading results and profitability in H1. The proven resilience of Vivendi (and UMG in particular), in addition to stronger ‘core activities’ at the Bolloré level, point to a less gloomy outlook despite the challenges of a still uncertain H2 economic recovery.

Q1 revenues spared from COVID-19 hit, but 2020 outlook remains uncertain

While Bolloré’s group revenues in Q1 saw a limited impact from the COVID-19 outbreak, banking on Vivendi’s relative resilience to the crisis may not prove to be enough to offset the negative impact on the holding’s transport and logistics activities. The 2020 scenario for Bolloré ex-Vivendi remains quite challenging indeed.

A strong Vivendi redeems a challenging FY19 for the core activities

Bolloré released sales figures that, despite falling in line with our estimates, paint a worrisome picture for the group’s ‘core activities’ (i.e. excluding Vivendi). Particularly in the context of a latent global slowdown due to the Covid-19 outbreak and its potential impact on global freight volumes and oil product prices. The outlook for 2020 may not differ much from the disappointing performance of Bolloré’s core businesses in 2019.

Q3: Transportation & Logistics feels the pinch

The widespread decline in air and sea freight volumes spurred on by the trade war and the uncertain macro-economic environment is catching up with Bolloré, with revenues decreasing by 4% lfl in Transportation & Logistics. Nonetheless, the scenario is more upbeat in the Communications division, as UMG continues to post solid rates of growth (up +16%), much to the benefit of Vivendi (+7%). Opportune disposals of non-core assets should keep the cash flowing in spite of a challenging outlook for Bol

ASX Listed Managed Investments Monthly Report

Capital Continues to Flow Into LMIs Through April and May we have seen three more listed managed investment vehicles (LMIs) start trading on the ASX including two fixed income focused listed investment trusts (LITs), Perpetual Credit Income Trust (ASX:PCI) and MCP Wholesale Income Opportunities Trust (ASX:MOT). Refer to our LMI Monthly Update of 18 March 2019 for more details on these LITs. Pengana Private Equity Trust (ASX:PE1) units listed in April after it raised $205m, at the lower

Positive surprise in Transportation & Logistics Q3

The 11% organic growth posted by Transportation & Logistics, the historical heart of Bolloré, is a positive surprise in a context of downgraded world GDP growth.

H1 18 stronger operationally while Vivendi purchase costs rise

Putting it simply, we find it difficult to reconcile our 2018 forecasts with the H1 release which is a measure of the group’s complexity. The underlying business is in better shape than expected while building up the stake in Vivendi is a high-wire exercise.

Cenkos: Healthcare Sector - Ward Round

Weekly round-up of AIM-listed healthcare news. Venture Life Group, GENinCode, Kromek, Alliance Pharma, Polarean Imaging, Benchmark Holdings, Ondine Biomedical, Verici Dx, Faron Pharmaceuticals, Avacta Group, Abingdon Health, Open Orphan, Belluscura, Hutchmed (China), Oxford Biodynamics

Morning Note – 7 June 2022

Vertu Motors PLC (VTU LN) - Continued positive momentum

Vertu has released an AGM Trading update that communicates a continuation of the strong trading announced on 11 May. The trends of constrained supply and high margins continue. We leave forecasts unchanged today, but this positive update for the first third of FY23 helps to underpin our full year forecasts.

Gearing up for next growth phase

Results met previously downgraded expectations. Despite the challenges, including disruption from Brexit and weak performance in Europe (c45% of sales), profitability remains well above pre-covid levels (6% EBITDA margin) and it has a strong pipeline of exciting growth initiatives landing this year. So, although downgrades have disappointed and triggered a de-rating, this is far from the end of the story. On good execution these initiatives will bolster G4M’s long term potential and open up a pa

Hostmore - Recovery on the menu

We initiate coverage of Hostmore with a 125p share target price, implying 279% upside. Hostmore has been spun out of Electra Private Equity like an unwanted orphan into a market that’s not interested in consumer stocks at present. The PLC is unknown and unloved with a share register that is more reflective of its past rather than its future. Yet it has the exclusive UK franchise for one of the most iconic, well-known and loved restaurant brands in the UK – Fridays. Add to the recipe a capable ma

SHORE CAPITAL - Marks & Spencer+ (MKS, House Stock at 138p)

BOTB - Beats forecasts, £6.275m return of capital announced

BOTB prelims were slightly ahead of our forecasts, which we recently raised post the May trading statement. Trading continues to normalise despite the uncertain consumer outlook, driven by constant fine-tuning to changing market conditions. BOTB also declared a 6p/share (£0.565k) final dividend and a £6.275m return of capital via tender offer, equivalent to 66.7p/share; and 72.7p and £6.84m combined. We have increased our EPS (Dil. Adj.) forecasts by 23% to 53.9p from 43.9p for FY23E, and by 21%

LIBERUM: Tortilla Mexican Grill - Initiation - Ride the Mexican wave

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc -- Trading in line with expectations

Brighton Pier Group (BPG) has released a trading update, confirming it continues to trade in line with market expectations for FY22E. We have already upgraded our numbers twice this year; the latest of which occurred in March 2022. Given the sharp deterioration in the UK (and global) economic outlook seen since then, with inflation continuing to rise and consumers facing a ‘cost of living crisis', we consider the fact that BPG continues to trade in line with expectations as an impressive achieve

Morning Note – 22 June 2022

FY22 guidance downgrade

Next published good FY21/22 figures, exactly in line with the updated guidance (6 January) and consensus. However, the group cut its guidance for FY22/23 (February 2022-January 2023) due to the suspension of activity in Ukraine and Russia and the inflationary environment. We believe the limited guidance downgrade is a wake-up call to the non-food retail sector; the uncertain consequences of the Russian-Ukraine conflict will not be limited to the losses from the temporary suspension of their ac

LIBERUM: Tortilla Mexican Grill* - Wrapping up Chilango

A tougher gig in FY22; strong growth over FY20

G4M delivered FY22 results slightly ahead of guidance in the April post-close trading update, with EBITDA some £0.2m better at £11.2m. FY22 results were down on the exceptional FY21 but show strong progress over FY20, better reflecting the underlying growth trajectory. In light of recent acquisitions, planned enhancements and service additions to its proprietary trading platform, and its prescient investment in inventory ahead of inflationary pressures, G4M’s business model is set fair to delive

Various Eateries (VARE) - Interim results; trading in line with expectations

This morning's results illustrate a robust performance in a challenging time for the wider sector, this reflects the strength of the Various Eateries concepts and structural changes taking place across the industry. We anticipate the new site pipeline will continue to build and that management's experience will be key in successfully managing the various headwinds faced by the industry. With the strategy remaining unchanged, a focus on the highest quality sites and the size of the opportunity ha

3Q IMS

Halfords 3Q IMS is in our view positive with PBT forecasts for FY 2020 held at £50-55m and good LFL in Retail cycles +5.9% and Autocentres +4.6% where most of new management development work has been focused. Retail Motoring products LFL -2.7% continues to show impacts of discretionary spend softness in our view. Management retains its caution about near term demand prospects overall and its development programme in Autocentres and key aspects of the business overall (notably new integrated webs