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22 Mar 2022
Jam tomorrow
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Jam tomorrow
ITV PLC (ITV:LON) | 79.1 8.9 16.6% | Mkt Cap: 2,972m
- Published:
22 Mar 2022 -
Author:
Packer William WP | Maas Annick AM -
Pages:
9 -
ITV recently presented its digital initiatives to 2026 following its FY results. We have now had a chance to model the new strategy, which involves the launch of a new AdVoD and SvoD platform ITVX, and consider our recommendation in the context of the new figures, risks, and potential rewards of the strategy. The FY21 results themselves delivered a small beat on EBIT but the outlook and strategy exposition were more significant. Having reviewed our recommendation in this context we downgrade to Neutral.
ITVX launch to weigh on profits for a while
As part of its FY update the group announced new steps in its digital strategy, which involves the launch of ITVX, an ADVod and SVoD platform due to launch in Q4''22. Through this new strategy the group plans to add GBP375m revenues by FY26 with the profit contribution only expected for post FY26. By 2026, the group expects the incremental annual revenue to cover the incremental annual investment cost of ITVX.
TAR Outlook comments supportive
The group''s total advertising comment was much more bullish than consensus had anticipated as it guided for Q1 TAR of c16% (vs cons at c10%). January was called up 15%, February up 20% and March up around 13%. The group concluded that early indications indicated total advertising revenue would be up c10% in April which has strong comparables in 2021, due to the economic rebound.
Downgrade to Neutral
We update our model for FY21, implement the group''s new reporting structure and reflect the ITVX plans in our numbers. We downgrade today to Neutral. With massive investments in MandE and the divisional EBITA only back at 2021 levels beyond 2026, we see the risk reward at current levels as fair with our target price cut 36% to 93p. Our Studios estimates remain broadly unchanged.