
21 Feb 2022
Tristel Plc : Improved business focus, but patchy recovery - Hold
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Tristel Plc : Improved business focus, but patchy recovery - Hold
Tristel Plc (TSTL:LON) | 360 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 171.8m
- Published:
21 Feb 2022 -
Author:
Dr Jens Lindqvist -
Pages:
7 -
Increased focus on proprietary chemistry. H1’s reflect the company’s decision to discontinue its Anistel (animal health) and Crystel (pharma) products, to focus exclusively on products for hospital use based on chlorine dioxide chemistry. The discontinued products delivered £1.5m of revenue in H1’22 (H1’21: £2.0m; FY’21: £3.8m) on a below-average gross margin.
Recovery remains volatile. Revenue from continuing operations was £13.6m (-7% YoY), including a negative £0.9m impact from NHS de-stocking, which completed during the period, with PBT of £1.0m (H1’21: £2.5m), also impacted by a higher SBP charge. In spite of signs that hospital and outpatient activity is increasing across most markets, order patterns have remained inconsistent.
US on track. Whilst a first filing with the FDA for the approval of Tristel Duo is on track for mid-year, the state-by-state registration of the product as an intermediate-level disinfectant (leveraging its existing EPA clearance) has gained renewed commercial impetus, in partnership with Parker Laboratories.
Forecast changes. We have removed Anistel and Crystel revenue from estimates (FY’22e: -£2.4m; FY’23-24e: -£1.2m), and assume a FY’22e net loss from discontinued operations of £2.5m, including impairments. In addition, to reflect residual uncertainty around demand recovery, we have taken a significantly more conservative stance on underlying Tristel (devices) and Cache (surfaces) revenue, as detailed overleaf.
Valuation. We remain highly positive on the longer-term outlook and believe the reduced business complexity (incl. the culling of nearly one-half of the Group’s SKUs) have optimally positioned Tristel to benefit from post-Covid recovery and the US rollout. However, our revised estimates implies a reduced target price of 405p. We move from Buy to Hold on valuation grounds.